UFC Fight Night 139 Betting Tips, Picks and Predictions

UFC Fight Night 139 gives us an excellent opportunity to build on our recent profits because it looks like a great card for betting. I’ve already identified a couple of solid prefight bets, and these kinds of cards also tend to be amazing for Live Betting because there are so many fighters making their UFC debut.

Almost half of the fighters competing at UFC Fight Night 139 are making their UFC debut. This kind of card often presents us with several opportunities to make BIG MONEY in Live Betting. This is because the betting sites don’t have that much knowledge of lesser known fighters and they’re not going to take the time to do proper research ahead of this weekend’s fights. Instead, they will rely on the betting public to correct their lines. This is also great for us because the betting public won’t take the time to learn about these new UFC fighters either.

I am a different beast. I will obsess over these fights over the next few days. I will spend 20 to 30 hours researching these fighters so that I am armed with enough knowledge to help us make a ton of money this weekend. We have been doing great lately, and Christmas will be here soon. We all have a ton of stuff to buy. It’s time for us to put some serious money in the bank!!!

Fight Betting Tip Pick
Chan Sung Jung vs Korean Zombie No bet Rodriguez to win
Donald Cerrone vs Mike Perry No bet Perry to win
Germaine De Randamie vs Raquel Pennington 5 units on Germaine De Randamie to win at odds of 1.57 | -175 | 57/100 De Randamie to win
Hannah Cifers vs Maycee Barber No bet Barber to win
Luis Pena vs Mike Trizano No bet Pena to win
Amanda Cooper vs Ashley Yoder No bet Yoder to win
Bobby Moffett vs Chas Skelly No bet Moffett to win
Beneil Dariush vs Thiago Moises No bet Moises to win
Davi Ramos vs John Gunther No bet Ramos to win
Eric Shelton vs Joseph Morales No bet Shelton to win
Mark De La Rosa vs Joby Sanchez No bet De La Rosa to win
Devonte Smith vs Julian Erosa No bet Smith to win

Germaine De Randamie vs Raquel Pennington Betting Tip and Prediction

Germaine De Randamie is one of the greatest Female Kickboxers and Muay Thai Fighters of all time and technically she’s still the UFC’s Featherweight Champion because nobody beat her to take the title. Despite this, I do believe that if the best version of Raquel Pennington shows up at UFC Fight Night 139, this will be a close fight. I’m not saying that she’d beat De Randamie, but against some of her past opponents, she has demonstrated the cardio, toughness, and skills to make this a close fight.

At this point, you’re probably wondering why I’d consider betting on De Randamie to win a close fight at favorite odds, so before I go any further I’d like you to watch this interview that Raquel Pennington gave a couple of days ago:

As you can see Raquel Pennington is dealing with a lot of issues right now. She has suffered several significant injuries over the last few years, she appears to be very low in confidence, and she’s also battling Hypothyroidism.

Pretty much every Disease on the planet from Rheumatoid Arthritis to Multiple Sclerosis has been linked to head trauma and chronic stress, and unfortunately, fighters live stressful lives and take a ton of damage. When Cat Zingano fought Amanda Nunes way back in 2014, she developed Hypothyroidism, vision problems, depression, anxiety, chronic fatigue and short-term memory issues. She said that her coach would give her instructions and within seconds by the time she could act on it she had forgotten what he said. To learn more about the full extent of the problems she faced after the Nunes fight I recommend listening to her podcast with Joe Rogan. It’s an eye-opener:

If you go and watch Cat Zingano before her fight with Amanda Nunes and then watch some of her fights after the Nunes matchup, you’ll see that it’s like watching a completely different person. The damage that Zingano took at the hands of Nunes changed her forever, and I believe there’s a good chance that we’ll see similar changes in Pennington.

Hypothyroidism is no joke. It comes with a multitude of complications including:

  • Chronic Fatigue
  • Muscle and Joint pain
  • Depression
  • Anxiety
  • Weight Gain
  • Breathlessness
  • Difficulty controlling heart rate. Heart palpitations, abnormal heart rate

These symptoms would explain why Zingano’s career and performances fell off a cliff after she fought Nunes. How are you supposed to motivate yourself to get up and train every day when you’re battling Chronic Fatigue? How are you supposed to stay mentally strong when Depression and Anxiety plagues you? How are you supposed to keep your weight down and cut weight when Hypothyroidism makes you put on weight? How are you supposed to stay relaxed and recover in between rounds when you can’t control your Heart Rate?

In the past, I have talked about fighters like they are batteries. The more that batteries get used, the more their charge drops until eventually, they are on empty. We must look at fighters in the same way. There is only so much damage that a person can take before their body breaks, and it’s not the same anymore. In that interview I posted earlier in the breakdown it sounds like Pennington’s body is starting to break. She has suffered multiple injuries, multiple surgeries and now she has to battle a Chronic Disease that will negatively impact all the key aspects of her body.

We’re already 500 words into this breakdown, and I haven’t even covered how these girls matchup stylistically yet!

If this fight stays standing, it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to work out that De Randamie should dominate. She is one of the greatest Female Kickboxing and Muay Thai fighters of all time. My only criticism is that she’s a slow starter, but as we know, this is common with Muay Thai fighters.

In Thailand, it is seen as unsporting if you start a fight fast. This is because Muay Thai promoters want fights to start slow so that they can take Live Bets from the audience. The fighters then ramp things up and go for it in the second round. The promoters don’t like early finishes because they don’t have time to take Live Bets. This is why you’ll often see traditionally trained Muay Thai fighters like De Randamie start slow. If you go back and watch her fight against Larissa Pacheco, you’ll see exactly what I mean. She spends the whole first round finding her range, firing off warning shots and then goes to work in round 2, sitting down on her shots and landing with devastating impact and accuracy. I’m letting you know this now so that you don’t freak out if Pennington gets the better of her in round 1.

On the ground, Pennington has a big advantage, but De Randamie’s takedown defense has massively improved over the last few years. Holly Holm tried to use the same grappling heavy gameplan that she used to defeat Megan Anderson on De Randamie and she didn’t even come close to getting a takedown. She had De Randamie in some horrible positions, but couldn’t complete the takedown because De Randamie showed great balance, strong hips, and very good technical takedown defense. De Randamie now gets underhooks in play very early and does a great job of preventing her opponents from connecting their hands together and controlling her body or working for a double leg. Just like Jose Aldo, she is so confident in her balance, base and core strength that she keeps forcing her opponents to go to the single leg because she’s confident that they won’t be able to complete it.

Raquel Pennington isn’t a very strong wrestler and lacks the explosiveness to time a takedown that would catch De Randamie off guard and put her on her back. Obviously, you never know in MMA, De Randamie might get caught off balance and end up on the ground, but skill for skill she should be able to keep this fight standing.

My only real criticism of De Randamie is that she spends too much time defending takedowns against the cage. This is because she needs to use the cage to defend the takedown [Jose Aldo style] and because she is very comfortable in the clinch due to her Muay Thai background. The good news is that the new MMA scoring criteria favors De Randamie’s willingness to engage in the clinch because even with her back against the cage this is now considered a 50 / 50 position. De Randamie also does a great job of landing significant damage from the clinch with hard knees and elbows. I’m not going to like it if De Randamie starts to spend a lot of time in the clinch, but at least we know that the new scoring criteria should favor her if the fight goes the distance.

Skill for skill this is a good stylistic matchup for Germaine De Randamie because she has the takedown defense to keep the fight standing and the striking to hurt Pennington bad. I believe she’ll be able to keep this fight on her terms and possibly get the KO now that it appears that Pennington’s body is beat up and she’s low on confidence.

If the best version of Raquel Pennington that we’ve ever seen showed up at UFC Fight Night 139, I believe this would be a close fight, but with all the damage she took against Nunes, the Hypothyroidism Diagnosis and the lack of confidence she seems to be feeling right now, I think Pennington showing up and putting in her best ever performance is highly unlikely. Based on all the information we have available we have to assume that there’s a significant chance that she will look a shadow of herself on Saturday night. If that happens, I expect De Randamie to dominate. At the current odds, I believe De Randamie is a solid bet.

Reasons for betting on Germaine De Randamie

  • Raquel Pennington took a life changing amount of damage in her last fight against Amanda Nunes.
  • Raquel Pennington has developed Hypothyroidism since fighting Amanda Nunes.
  • Hypothyroidism causes Chronic Fatigue, Muscle and Joint Pain, Depression, Anxiety, Irregular Heart Beat, Weight Gain and Breathlessness. Zingano also developed Hypothyroidism after taking a ton of damage against Amanda Nunes and she was never the same again. She has never even got close to reaching the level of performance she showed before the Nunes fight.
  • Raquel Pennington appears to be very low in confidence right now.
  • Back in October 2017 Raquel Pennington broke her leg in an ATV accident, she said that this injury has been difficult to recover from. She said that she went into a defensive shell after eating the second leg kick against Nunes because she wanted to protect the leg. Germaine De Randamie also has devastating leg kicks. If the broken leg is still a mental insecurity for Pennington, this gives De Randamie a huge advantage.
  • Germaine De Randamie is a significantly better striker than Raquel Pennington.
  • Germaine De Randamie has excellent takedown defense.
  • Germaine De Randamie is very strong in the clinch and can do a lot of damage from this position.
  • The weight gain associated with Hypothyroidism should make this a tough weight cut for Raquel Pennington.
  • Raquel Pennington has admitted this week that her Doctors are still trying to help her control her Hypothyroidism with medication.
  • Germaine De Randamie hits extremely hard for a female fighter. She really sits down on her strikes.
  • Germaine De Randamie is the best striker in Womens MMA.
  • Germaine De Randamie is devastating when she finds her range.
  • Germaine De Randamie has excellent cardio, she’s very tough and she has a good chin.
  • Germaine De Randamie went to Denver 2 weeks before the fight to adjust to the high altitude climate.

Risk Factors with betting on Germaine De Randamie

  • Germaine De Randamie is a slow starter. It takes her a while to find her range.
  • Germaine De Randamie spends too long defending takedowns in the clinch against the cage.
  • Raquel Pennington has a huge advantage if she can get this fight to the ground.
  • Germaine De Randamie has not fought in almost 2 years, although she regularly has long breaks in between fights.
  • Germaine De Randamie works a full time job as a Police Officer.
  • Raquel Pennington lives and trains in Denver, so she’ll have home advantage on her side.
  • Female fighters tend to be much more inconsistent than male fighters.

My Betting Tip

Germaine De Randamie to win

Recommended Stake

5 Units

[5% of your bankroll]

Odds

Decimal = 1.57
Moneyline = -175
Fractional = 57/100

63%

Implied Probability

The bookies believe that Germaine De Randamie has a 63% chance of beating Raquel Pennington based on their current odds.

70%

Our Probability

I believe that Germaine De Randamie has a 70% chance of beating Raquel Pennington based on our extensive research and analysis.

Allsopp
I'm a Professional Gambler from the UK. I specialize in betting on MMA. I've got 1 kid, a Shih Tzu and I've been making money from gambling for around 8 years now.

Leave a Reply