UFC Fight Night 141 Betting Tips, Picks and Predictions

Christmas is a magical time of year, but it can also be an expensive time of year! I promise you that I am working hard behind the scenes to give us the best chance of earning big money so that we can give our families a very special holiday season!

We’re now up over 20 units on prefight and Live Betting since the beginning of October, which is no surprise because historically we do great during the Winter months. With UFC events almost every weekend now, there’s a good chance that we’ll hit a few more big winning nights before the end of 2018.

2018 has been a good year so far, with VIP Members earning around 20 units of profit and Elite Members making around 110 units. I am really pleased with these results because we’ve had a lot of bad luck in recent months. If we’re still able to pump out these kinds of profits after losing an ungodly amount of split decisions, then I am looking forward to seeing what we can do in 2019 now that normal service seems to have resumed!

Thank you so much for sticking with me this year. There have been a lot of ups and a lot of downs but we always come out on top. Your support means a lot to me. Let’s end this year big with some monster paydays!!!

Fight Betting Tip Pick
Curtis Blaydes vs Francis Ngannou 3 units on the over 1.5 rounds at odds of 1.80 | -125 | 4/5 Blaydes to win
Alistair Overeem vs Sergey Pavlovich 2 units on the over 1.5 rounds at odds of 1.80 | -125 | 4/5 Overeem to win
Syuri Kondo vs Xioanan Yan No bet Yan to win
Vince Morales vs Yadong Song Considering putting Song in a parlay Song to win
Rashad Coulter vs Yaozong Hu No bet Coulter to win
Jessica Aguilar vs Weili Zhang No bet Zhang to win
Lauren Mueller vs Yanan Wu No bet Mueller to win
Alex Morono vs Kenan Song No bet Song to win
John Phillips vs Kevin Holland No bet Holland to win
David Zawada vs Li Jingliang 3 units on Li Jingliang to win at odds of 1.70 | -143 | 7/10 Jingliang to win
Martin Day vs Pingyuan Liu No bet Liu to win
Louis Smolka vs Sumudaerji No bet Smolka to win

David Zawada vs Li Jingliang Betting Tip and Prediction

Last week at UFC Fight Night 140 we had to wait until the final few hours before the event was scheduled to start to get the best odds on Michel Prazeres and Santiago Ponzinibbio. This paid off as both fighters won, giving us an overall profit for the night.

A big part of making money betting on MMA is trying to lock in our bets at the best odds, and sometimes that means placing bets very early in the week and sometimes that means waiting until the last minute before an event is scheduled to start. Last week we had to wait until the last minute for two of our bets, but this week I recommend getting a bet in early on Li Jingliang to beat David Zawada.

Li Jingliang was one of the first names that jumped out at me when I started researching UFC Fight Night 141 this morning, and I’m pleased to say that after completing my research I think that he is a rock-solid bet to beat David Zawada. This is one of those bets that I recommend locking in straight away because I believe there’s a good chance his odds will decline significantly over the next few days. Jingliang should be a much bigger favorite over Zawada than he is now. There’s a good amount of value in the current odds.

Li Jingliang is one of those guys that you can never feel totally confident in because he’s reckless and does have a tendency to make big mistakes during his fights, but having said that I don’t give Zawada much of a chance in this matchup. Jingliang’s big skill advantages should be too much for Zawada to deal with.

If this fight stays standing Jingliang should be able to use his far superior striking to dominate Zawada. Zawada has a sloppy style of striking that is lightyears behind what Jingliang brings to the table. There’s a really high probability that Jingliang wins this fight by KO.

Zawada’s only path to victory is to try and take this fight to the ground, but that won’t be easy because Jingliang has excellent takedown defense. He’s also difficult to hold down. In his past fights, Jingliang has shown that he is like a spring. If you take him down, he pops right back up. Zawada does have some submission threat, but as we’ve seen from Jingliang’s past fights, it’s very difficult to make him tap. We’ve seen him in some horrendous positions on the ground, but he always finds a way to fight out of them.

In many ways, it’s always a risk betting on Jingliang because of his crazy style of fighting, but he’s also incredibly tough, and he’s the kind of guy you have to kill to finish. That in itself is a big bonus. You never have to worry about heart, durability or cardio when you bet on Jingliang. He never slows down, and he has no quit in him.

With home advantage on his side and a huge advantage when it comes to striking, I see this as a pretty easy matchup for Jingliang. He should be able to walk Zawada down and use his significantly better striking skills to win this fight comfortably. I’m sure that at some point Jingliang will do something to make us sweat this bet, but in the end, I expect him to get the win.

Reasons for betting on Li Jingliang

  • Li Jingliang is a significantly better striker than David Zawada. Zawada has very low level, sloppy striking technique.
  • Li Jingliang has legit 1 punch KO power in every strike.
  • Li Jingliang is chinese, so he’ll have home advantage on his side for this matchup.
  • Li Jingliang has excellent takedown defense. He also does a good job of quickly popping back to his feet when he does get taken down.
  • Li Jingliang has excellent submission defense, he’s very tough to submit.
  • Li Jingliang is very tough. He has a good chin. He’s the kind of fighter that you have to practically kill in order to finish. He will not quit.
  • Li Jingliang has excellent cardio. He can fight at a high pace for 15 minutes without slowing down.
  • David Zawada has really bad fight IQ. He frequently pulls guard going for long shot submissions.
  • Zawada has a weak top game. He leaves a lot of space open for his opponents to improve their position on the ground.
  • David Zawada does not have much experience competing outside of Europe.
  • David Zawada is not a skilled enough wrestler to take Li Jingliang down.
  • David Zawada has terrible fight IQ.

Risk Factors with betting on Li Jingliang

  • Li Jingliang is very reckless. He puts himself in a lot of danger.
  • Li Jingliang has bad fight IQ.
  • David Zawada is very tough. He’s more than happy to go to war.
  • The judges on Asian events are historically very bad.

My Betting Tip

Li Jingliang to win

Recommended Stake

3 Units

[3% of your bankroll]

Odds

Decimal = 1.70
Moneyline = -143
Fractional = 7/10

59%

Implied Probability

The bookies believe that Li Jingliang has a 59% chance of beating David Zawada based on their current odds.

70%

Our Probability

I believe that Li Jingliang has a 70% chance of beating David Zawada based on my extensive research and analysis.

Curtis Blaydes vs Francis Ngannou Betting Tip and Prediction

The over 1.5 rounds on the fight between Curtis Blaydes and Francis Ngannou is a great bet. Win or lose there’s a ton of value attached to it. I recommend that you lock this bet in ASAP because I expect the odds to decline significantly from now until the start of the fight.

Curtis Blaydes and Francis Ngannou already fought each other two years ago, and the fight was looking like it was going to cruise to a decision until the Doctor stopped the fight at the end of the 2nd round due to an eye injury.

To win our bet on the over 1.5 rounds, we only need this fight to last 7.5 minutes, so on the most basic of levels, I already feel like this is a great value bet considering we’ve already seen Blaydes and Ngannou compete in a matchup that looked like it was going to go the distance. Take a look at their first fight and see for yourself:

The current implied probability in the odds of 1.80 | -125 | 4/5 is 56%. This is insane value when you take into consideration the fact that just two years ago we saw the first contest between Blaydes and Ngannou looking like it was going to cruise towards a decision.

To assess the value of this bet based on that very simplistic perspective is dangerous, but when you drill into the detail behind this bet, I start to love it even more.

Francis Ngannou is obviously terrifying. He has the power to finish anyone in a split second, but he appears to have lost his confidence since losing to Stipe Miocic. We saw him put in a bizarre performance in his last fight against Derrick Lewis where he looked tentative and gunshy for the first time in his career. Ngannou engaged in a strange, 15-minute shadow boxing contest with Lewis that indicated that Ngannou might not come into future matchups with the same devastating aggression we saw from him earlier in his career. Ngannou’s performance against Lewis indicated that he is nervous about gassing out after he got tired so early on against Stipe Miocic. He’s now in a position where he’s so scared of getting tired that he is reluctant to let his hands go. It’s not easy for a 265-pound athlete to improve their cardio, so it may take several more fights before Ngannou learns how to pace himself and maintain a decent output without gassing early in a fight. Ngannou’s lack of confidence in his ability to fight at a high pace for 15 to 25 minutes should make it more likely that he’ll start slow. This should help this fight edge closer to the 7.5 minute mark where we would win our bet.

There’s no question that Ngannou has the power to finish anyone in the division, but we also cannot question Curtis Blaydes’ chin, toughness or heart. We’ve seen him take an enormous amount of damage in his first fight against Ngannou and hang in there, and we’ve also seen him close to being KO’d against Mark Hunt and Alistair Overeem. We know that Blaydes will not crumble if he gets hurt. He’s young, tough, athletic and durable and he can take a shot. It won’t be easy for Ngannou to finish him.

Ngannou is also incredibly tough. We’ve seen him eat a few bombs from some tough guys throughout his career and after being on the bottom against Stipe Miocic for almost 20 minutes, he still would not give up. He could have looked for a way out in that fight, he could have given up his back and handed a RNC to Miocic on a plate, but he kept fighting. He wouldn’t quit.

Based on all their fights in the UFC we know that Blaydes and Ngannou are both tough to finish, which makes a bet on the over 1.5 rounds good value.

Blaydes’ path to victory is to try and take Ngannou down and grind him out, but that won’t be easy. Blaydes isn’t a very skilled wrestler because he’s very tall, which makes it difficult for him to shoot in deep on his opponent’s hips. This is why he had so much trouble taking Ngannou down in their first fight. Blaydes will have to try and stay out of trouble early and avoid eating big shots until Ngannou starts to get tired. He should then be able to have much more success with his mediocre wrestling technique. By the time this happens, we should already see the fight getting close to the 7.5-minute mark when we are already counting our profits.

Betting on overs is always riskier when it comes to Heavyweight fights because Heavyweights tend to have much more finishing power than the lower weight classes, but at almost even money I feel like the over 1.5 rounds is a great bet. Curtis Blaydes has proven that he can take a shot and Ngannou has also proven that he’s incredibly tough and difficult to hold down. I love this bet. For all of the reasons contained in this breakdown, I really love this bet.

Reasons for betting on the over 1.5 rounds

  • Blaydes and Ngannou fought two years ago and the fight looked like it was cruising to a decision.
  • Francis Ngannou seems to have lost his confidence since losing to Stipe Miocic. He seems unsure of how to pace himself. He’s worried about gassing out. For this reason he will likely be much less aggressive and much less dangerous early on than he was earlier in his career. This should help us get closer to the 7.5 minute mark of the fight where we win our bet.
  • Curtis Blaydes is very tough and he has a great chin. We’ve seen him eat bombs from Ngannou, Overeem and Hunt and hang in there. He won’t quit if he gets hurt. He also does a good job of recovering quickly.
  • Francis Ngannou is extremely tough. He will not quit.
  • This is a 5 round, 25 minute fight. This means that Blaydes and Ngannou will most likely want to start slower and pace themselves.
  • 6 of Blaydes’ last 8 fights have lasted longer than 7.5 minutes.
  • Ngannou’s last two fights have gone the distance.
  • Curtis Blaydes is not that dangerous on the ground.
  • It’s hard to hold Ngannou down early in a fight. He’s so strong and powerful that he can just stand back up.
  • Blaydes has improved his striking a lot since his first fight against Ngannou. This should mean he won’t be as vulnerable to taking big damage if the fight stays standing early.

Risk Factors with betting on the over 1.5 rounds

  • Francis Ngannou has the power to KO anyone in the division at anytime.
  • We tend to see more finishes in the Heavyweight division.
  • Francis Ngannou is very low level on the ground. Blaydes could put him in a bad position and get a finish.

My Betting Tip

Over 1.5 rounds

Recommended Stake

3 Units

[3% of your bankroll]

Odds

Decimal = 1.80
Moneyline = -125
Fractional = 4/5

56%

Implied Probability

The bookies believe that this fight has a 56% chance of lasting longer than 1.5 rounds based on their current odds.

70%

Our Probability

I believe that this fight has a 70% chance of lasting longer than 1.5 rounds based on my extensive research and analysis.

Alistair Overeem vs Sergey Pavlovich Betting Tip and Prediction

To understand the reasons why the over 1.5 rounds in the fight between Alistair Overeem and Sergey Pavlovich is a good bet, you should take some time to familiarise yourself with Pavlovich’s fighting style by watching some of his past fights:

As you can see, Pavlovich is very tentative. This makes the over 1.5 rounds a great bet on this fight because both Overeem and Pavlovich like to counter strike and react to their opponent. Neither guy wants to lead or be the first to initiate an exchange. When Overeem has fought guys in the past with this style, we have seen tentative, awkward standoffs with not much action. Based on the fighting style of both guys I think we’ll see the same type of fight tomorrow at UFC Fight Night 141.

Overeem has suffered at least 13 brutal knockouts in his MMA career, and at 38 years old he is now very fragile with all that damage starting to add up. Overeem’s chin faded a long time ago, but his striking defense is still excellent, and he is clearly several levels above Pavlovich when it comes to striking. Of course, it’s possible that Pavlovich could catch Overeem with something big, but when you go back and watch his recent fights, he doesn’t appear to be that dangerous. Pavlovich has gone the distance with quite a few fighters who are nowhere near Overeem’s level.

Overeem has made a big adjustment to his fighting style over the last few years to compensate for his declining chin which now sees him put defense first. You won’t see Overeem take many risks in fights because he knows if he eats one big shot, it’s over. Overeem always puts safety first, and that should help the fight go past the 7.5-minute mark, where we’d win this bet.

Overeem struggles against high output pressure fighters who close the distance and force him to engage. This is because he struggles to find the time and space to defend himself adequately when he’s put under pressure. Pavlovich does not have this pressure style of fighting. Pavlovich is happy to engage in a traditional kickboxing style matchup, and this will suit Overeem.

Overeem is the best striker to ever compete in the UFC’s Heavyweight division, so he’s capable of KOing anyone at any time, but he is much less dangerous than he used to be because he now favors defense over offense. He’d much prefer to chip away at his opponent and win a decision than to go for the kill and risk being knocked out. This is reflected by the fact that 3 of Overeem’s last 4 fights have lasted longer than 1.5 rounds.

Another reason why I like the over 1.5 rounds on this fight is because this is Pavlovich’s UFC debut. Fighters often start slow when they make their UFC debut. It takes them a while to get comfortable competing under the bright lights of the UFC. This means we could see a prolonged feeling out process while Pavlovich takes some time to settle. Overeem will be significantly better than anyone Pavlovich has ever faced, so I’d be surprised if the Russian came out hard and aggressive when we’ve never seen him fight like this in the past.

When you study the fighting styles of both Overeem and Pavlovich, I think there’s a good chance we’ll see a prolonged feeling out process and a high stakes chess match where both guys will look to outpoint the other, without taking too many risks. This dynamic between the two fighters means that there’s a very high chance that this fight will last longer than 1.5 rounds.

Reasons for betting on the over 1.5 rounds

  • Sergey Pavlovich is making his UFC debut. Fighters who make their UFC debut often take some time to get comfortable and settle into a rhythm. They often start slow.
  • Sergey Pavlovich has a low volume, tentative style of fighting.
  • Sergey Pavlovich does not appear to be that dangerous. He has gone the distance a few times over the last few years against very mediocre opponents.
  • Sergey Pavlovich lacks urgency. Even in a close fight it’s unlikely he’ll increase his output or change his gameplan.
  • Overeem and Pavlovich both like to counter strike and react to their opponents. This means that we will most likely see a tentative chess match with neither guy wanting to lead the exchanges.
  • Overeem only tends to struggle against pressure fighters and Pavlovich does not have this style. Pavlovich is really tentative, he won’t make Overeem work.
  • Overeem is aware of his weak chin, so he puts defense first. He doesn’t like to put himself in danger of being knocked out. His striking defense is excellent.
  • 3 out of Overeem’s last 4 fights have lasted longer than 1.5 rounds.
  • Pavlovich does not seem to have that much power in his strikes, but he is tough and durable.
  • The fighting styles of both guys make it more likely that we’ll see them try to outpoint each other as opposed to go for a finish.

Risk Factors with betting on the over 1.5 rounds

  • Overeem has a weak chin, it won’t take much to KO him.
  • We tend to see more finishes in the Heavyweight division.
  • Overeem is a significantly better striker than Pavlovich.

My Betting Tip

Over 1.5 rounds

Recommended Stake

2 Units

[2% of your bankroll]

Odds

Decimal = 1.80
Moneyline = -125
Fractional = 4/5

56%

Implied Probability

The bookies believe that this fight has a 56% chance of lasting longer than 1.5 rounds based on their current odds.

60%

Our Probability

I believe that this fight has a 60% chance of lasting longer than 1.5 rounds based on my extensive research and analysis.

Allsopp
I'm a Professional Gambler from the UK. I specialize in betting on MMA. I've got 1 kid, a Shih Tzu and I've been making money from gambling for around 8 years now.

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