UFC Fight Night 140 Betting Tips, Picks and Predictions

Germaine De Randamie beat Raquel Pennington last weekend at UFC Fight Night 139 to help us bank a decent profit on prefight bets and a small overall profit for Elite Members.

Unfortunately, we were on the wrong end of more bad judging in Live Betting which once again cost us money. Our only Live Bet of the night was on Amanda Cooper to beat Ashley Yoder at odds of 2.00 | +100 | 1/1.

Almost everybody scored the fight for Cooper, but the judges disagreed and Yoder was gifted a split decision win…

 

We’re now approximately 2-15 on split decisions since April, which is frustrating because we’ve had our money in the strongest position at least 70% of the time. This horrific run of bad luck has personally cost me tens of thousands of dollars, and it’s by far the worst run I’ve ever experienced. The new scoring criteria was introduced into the sport to make it less ambiguous which fighter should be awarded the win, but it has made things much, much worse.

We also have to question how seriously the UFC is taking this issue…

Curtis ThrasherA guy called Curtis Thrasher was one of the judges at UFC Fight Night 139. Thrasher is a Boxing Referee and Judge who hasn’t judged an event in 7 years. The UFC is supposed to be the Premier Mixed Martial Arts organization in the world and they drag some hillbilly out of his Trailer for the first time in 7 years to judge one of their events? It’s not acceptable.

Nobody is discussing the real-life implications that these bad decisions have on fighters. Amanda Cooper is now 2-4 in the UFC when she should be 3-3. Her “loss” to Ashley Yoder now means that she’ll be going into her next fight on a two-fight losing streak. If she loses her next fight she’ll probably be released from the UFC. It’s not fair. A guy like Curtis Thrasher could potentially have ruined a young fighter’s career.

We also have to examine the financial impact that a bad decision like this can have on a fighter. In last week’s prefight interview, Cooper revealed that this was the last fight on her contract:

Had Cooper won her fight against Yoder, she would have been in a stronger position to negotiate a better contract and more money. Now, on the back of a loss, she’ll probably be stuck on the same $10,000 show / $10,000 win contract that she has had since the Ultimate Fighter.

Think about that for a second. Amanda Cooper probably only earned around $15,000 for her fight against Yoder if you include sponsorship money. She should have got paid closer to $25,000. By the time she pays taxes and her coaches, she’s not even earning minimum wage. This means she’ll probably have to get a job to survive. That extra $10,000 can make a big difference to a young fighter’s career. It could be the difference between Cooper being able to afford to train full time, which could then result in her going on to become a top 10 fighter, or without the money it could result in Cooper not being able to train full time, therefore losing her next fight and inevitably getting cut from the UFC. Nobody seems to care about these issues, but we see it happen to young, up and coming fighter every, single, weekend. It hurts when we get robbed, but fighters suffer much more.

The good news is that UFC Fight Night 140 takes place in Argentina, so the Brazilian athletic commission should be in charge of appointing the judges. Over the last couple of years, judges on the Brazilian events have been the best in the world, so I am hoping we can have a good, clean night of betting on Saturday, which gives us a good chance of banking a solid profit.

I also think this card should be excellent for prefight betting. Right now there are a few fighters I have my eye on. I’ll be sure to email you with my betting tips as I research each of the fights.

Fight Betting Tip Pick
Neil Magny vs Santiago Ponzinibbio 5 units on Santiago Ponzinibbio to win at odds of 1.47 | -213 | 47/100 Ponzinibbio to win
Darren Elkins vs Ricardo Lamas No bet Lamas to win
Johnny Walker vs Khalil Rountree No bet Rountree to win
Cezar Ferreira vs Ian Heinisch 3 units on Cezar Ferreira to win at odds of 1.58 | -172 | 29/50 Ferreira to win
Guido Canneti vs Marlon Vera No bet Canneti to win
Cynthia Calvillo vs Poliana Botelho No bet Botelho to win
Bartosz Fabinski vs Michel Prazeres 2 units on Michel Prazeres to win at odds of 1.85 | -118 | 17/20 Prazeres to win
Alexandre Pantoja vs Ulka Sasaki No bet Pantoja to win
Austin Arnett vs Humberto Bandenay No bet Arnett to win
Hector Aldana vs Laureano Staropoli No bet Aldana to win
Devin Powell vs Jesus Pinedo No bet Pinedo to win
Anderson Dos Santos vs Nad Narimani No bet Narimani to win

Cezar Ferreira vs Ian Heinisch Betting Tip and Prediction

Ian Heinisch is the current LFA Middleweight Champion, and he’s stepping up on around 10 days notice to fight Cezar Ferreira at UFC Fight Night 140. There are many reasons why I believe Ferreira should beat him, but the first and most obvious is that Heinisch is making his UFC debut and taking this fight on short notice. Around 80% of fighters who make their UFC debut on short notice lose. Even if Heinisch were coming into this fight on the back of a full training camp, I still think Ferreira would be a good bet because this is a terrible stylistic matchup for Heinisch.

Traveling down to Buenos Aires to make your UFC debut on short notice is going to be a difficult task, but it’s going to be made even more difficult because Heinisch is undersized for the Middleweight division. Ferreira will have around a 6-inch reach advantage over him, and I expect Ferreira to tower over Heinisch on fight night.

Heinisch is an explosive wrestle Boxer who likes to use his power strikes to punch his way inside so that he can shoot for takedowns. His fighting style is quite basic and quite predictable. Take a look at some of his recent fights to see for yourself:

It’s clear from his past fights that Heinisch does have serious power in his hands, which is a slight concern because Ferreira has looked a little chinny in the past. The good news is that Ferreira’s chin and durability have improved a lot since he moved back up to Middleweight. His size and reach advantage should also make it difficult for Heinisch to land his powerful punches.

If this fight stays standing, I do believe it will be close, and we have to accept that there’s a good chance that Ferreira will get knocked out. From a stylistic point of view, Heinisch likes to take control of the center of the Octagon and walk his opponent down so that he can close the distance and shoot a takedown or throw his big power punches. In contrast, Ferreira clearly understands that his chin is a weakness, so he puts his striking defense before offense. This means that Ferreira prefers to stay on the outside and counter strike. Ferreira does an excellent job of using a lot of footwork. He’ll be looking to play the role of matador and circle out of danger whenever Heinisch comes steaming forward in his predictable, straight line offensive patterns.

Ferreira can lose this fight if it stays standing, but both of these guys are grapplers and based on past fights they’ll both want to take this fight to the ground. If this fight does end up on the ground, Ferreira should have a considerable advantage.

As you can see in some of Heinisch’s recent fights, he has poor takedown defense and frequently gets trapped in bad positions on the ground. A few of his past opponents who are nowhere near the level of grappler that Ferreira is have been able to catch him in nasty submissions. Ferreira is a strong wrestler, with a very heavy top game and he’s also a high-level Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Black Belt. If this fight goes to the ground, Ferreira should be able to put Heinisch in some terrible positions and pick up the submission win.

My only concern with Ferreira is his chin, but aside from that, he’s better than Heinisch everywhere. Ferreira should be able to use his strong wrestling to take Heinisch down and dominate him on the ground. At the current odds, I feel like Ferreira is a solid bet. There’s a real risk he gets KO’d, but there’s risk with every bet. In my opinion, it is smart for us to bet on an experienced UFC veteran who has a skill advantage everywhere over an undersized fighter making their UFC debut on just 10 days notice.

The odds have already declined significantly on Ferreira over the last few days, and I expect them to continue to decline as get closer to the weekend because more and more people will start to study footage of Heinisch’s past fights. I recommend that you lock in this bet as soon as possible before the odds get any worse.

Reasons for betting on Cezar Ferreira

  • Ian Heinisch is stepping up on 10 days notice to make his UFC debut.
  • Ian Heinisch is undersized for the Middleweight division. Cezar Ferreira will have a 6 inch reach advantage.
  • Heinisch is primarily a wrestler who likes to take his opponents down and grind them out. Ferreira has excellent takedown defense and is a strong wrestler. He’s also a high level Brazilian Jiu Jitsu Black Belt.
  • Heinisch has a very predictable style of fighting. He rushes forward in straight lines throwing power strikes, before tieing his opponents up and working for takedowns.
  • Ian Heinisch is very low level on the ground. He frequently gets put into bad positions and his opponents are able to easily trap him in submissions.
  • Heinisch has very basic striking. He throws predictable patterns. Ferreira has good footwork and good striking defense. He should be able to read when Heinisch is likely to attack and circle out of danger.
  • Cezar Ferreira is a very strong wrestler. He should be able to take Heinisch down and dominate him on the ground.
  • Cezar Ferreira has a lot of experience competing in South America.
  • Ian Heinisch does not have much experience competing outside of the United States.
  • Cezar Ferreira has excellent cardio.
  • Cezar Ferreira is very tactical. He often tries to steal rounds with a takedown 2 minutes from the end of a round.

Risk Factors with betting on Cezar Ferreira

  • Cezar Ferreira is chinny and Heinisch hits hard.
  • Heinisch has vicious ground and pound. He can hurt Ferreira bad from top position.
  • Ferreira only shoots on average 1 takedown per round. If he doesn’t complete the takedown he tends to abandon trying to get the fight to the ground for the rest of that round. Ferreira prefers to commit everything he has to one big takedown attempt. The good news is that he should be able to put Heinisch on his back everytime he shoots.

My Betting Tip

Cezar Ferreira to win

Recommended Stake

3 Units

[3% of your bankroll]

Odds

Decimal = 1.58
Moneyline = -172
Fractional = 25/50

63%

Implied Probability

The bookies believe that Cezar Ferreira has a 63% chance of beating Ian Heinisch based on their current odds.

70%

Our Probability

I believe that Cezar Ferreira has a 70% chance of beating Ian Heinisch based on our extensive research and analysis.

Neil Magny vs Santiago Ponzinibbio Betting Tip and Prediction

Santiago Ponzinibbio was one of the first names that jumped out at me when I scanned through all of the fights taking place at UFC Fight Night 140. Without doing any research, I felt that there was a good chance he’d be a great bet to beat Neil Magny. Sometimes my initial feelings prove to be correct, and I uncover a great bet, but quite often when I begin researching a fight, red flags will emerge which will prevent me from betting my initial lean. This was not the case with Ponzinibbio.

All week I have held off on betting Ponzinibbio because the odds have been gradually improving and now, around 3 hours before the start of UFC Fight Night 140 I think it’s time to lock in our bet. If we wait any longer, we might see a late surge in money come in on Ponzinibbio that could cause his odds to decline.

Stylistically this is a terrible matchup for Neil Magny because he doesn’t have the wrestling to take this fight to the ground or the striking to survive if it stays standing. Magny loves to stay on the outside and pump the jab while using a lot of footwork to evade his opponent’s power strikes. The problem with this style is that he struggles when people pressure him. He’s not the kind of elusive counter striker who can stick to a game plan and continue to circle out of danger even when under heavy pressure. Yair Rodriguez last weekend was an excellent example of this style. Even when Korean Zombie closed the distance and was unleashing dangerous combinations in close proximity, Yair was still able to stay mobile, keep his back off the cage and circle out of danger. For the most part Magny does this, but when his opponents really crank the pressure up and close the distance, he has a habit of being trapped flat footed and defenseless with his back against the cage. In these positions, he forgets to defend strikes. He’s like a Rabbit caught in the headlights. This allows his opponents to tee off on him until he can weather the storm and start to circle out of danger again. This is suicide against a heavy hitting striker like Ponzinibbio who likes to stalks his opponents and doesn’t mind taking a jab to the face to get inside. Ponzinibbio is not the kind of guy who you want to let land too many clean strikes on your chin. He has vicious KO power in every punch, and we’ve seen Magny wobbled many times in the past.

Magny is reasonably good in all areas of MMA but he’s going to struggle against Ponzinibbio because he lacks the power to gain respect. He just doesn’t have the power to stop Ponzinibbio from coming forward. Ponzinibbio isn’t going to be deterred from marching forward if Magny lands a few hard jabs. To back Ponzinibbio up, you need to fight fire with fire, and Magny doesn’t have the kind of power to do this.

If this fight does go to the ground, both guys are well matched. Magny has a more dangerous submission game, but Ponzinibbio should be able to use his compact frame and strong wrestling to control where the fight takes place. I don’t want to spend too much time talking about the ground aspect of this matchup because it will most likely be irrelevant. The fact is that Ponzinibbio will want to keep this fight standing and KO Magny and Magny doesn’t have the offensive wrestling to get this fight to the ground.

Some X-Factors to consider in this matchup is that Ponzinibbio is Argentinian, so he’ll have home advantage on his side tonight. This is huge because the crowd will be behind him and will no doubt do their best to create an intimidating atmosphere for Neil Magny. Another X Factor is that Magny will have a big size advantage, although the downside of this is that his long, lean, skinny frame means that he lacks the power to land significantly damaging strikes and he also lacks the explosion to complete powerful takedowns.

Unless something crazy happens, I expect Ponzinibbio to walk Magny down and eventually win by KO. I don’t see too many other outcomes as realistic. If both these guys show up and perform to their full potential, Ponzinibbio should absolutely starch Magny.

Reasons for betting on Santiago Ponzinibbio

  • Santiago Ponzinibbio does a great job of controlling the center of the Octagon and applying constant pressure.
  • Ponzinibbio has excellent cardio, which enables him to compete at a high pace.
  • Santiago Ponzinibbio has vicious KO power in every strike.
  • Ponzinibbio does a great job of cutting off the Octagon, fighting his way inside and landing significant strikes.
  • Santiago Ponzinibbio has excellent takedown defense. He is also a Black Belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu under Roan Carneiro at ATT.
  • Santiago Ponzinibbio is extremely tough and has a great chin. He’s the kind of guy that you have to practically kill in order to finish.
  • Santiago Ponzinibbio is Argentinian so he’ll have home advantage on his side tonight.
  • Neil Magny struggles against pressure fighters and Ponzinibbio is a high pressure fighter.
  • Neil Magny does not have the wrestling to take Ponzinibbio down.
  • Neil Magny does not have the power in his hands to stop Ponzinibbio from coming forward.
  • When you pressure Magny he panics and gets trapped with his back against the cage. He forgets to defend himself and sustains a lot of power strikes from this position.

Risk Factors with betting on Santiago Ponzinibbio

  • Neil Magny has a huge size advantage over Ponzinibbio.
  • Neil Magny has excellent cardio.
  • Santiago Ponzinibbio has a high pressure, wreckless style of fighting.
  • This is Santiago Ponzinibbio’s first fight back in almost 1 year.

My Betting Tip

Santiago Ponzinibbio to win

Recommended Stake

5 Units

[5% of your bankroll]

Odds

Decimal = 1.47
Moneyline = -213
Fractional = 47/100

68%

Implied Probability

The bookies believe that Santiago Ponzinibbio has a 68% chance of beating Neil Magny based on their current odds.

80%

Our Probability

I believe that Santiago Ponzinibbio has an 80% chance of beating Neil Magny based on our extensive research and analysis.

Allsopp
I'm a Professional Gambler from the UK. I specialize in betting on MMA. I've got 1 kid, a Shih Tzu and I've been making money from gambling for around 8 years now.

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