eddiva hooker
– 7 inch reach
– predominantly southpaw
– great cardio
– trains at team elevation
– fights at a high pace
– eddiva poor cardio
– small for weight class
– home advantage
– hooker can grind on him
– hooker poor defence but great chin
– hooker may lose first round but should win 2nd and 3rd when eddiva
starts to slow down
case matthews
– moves from orthodox to southpaw very quickly to create angles for
strikes that you don’t see coming
– very high level striking, excellent technique, speed, range and power
– great takedown defence
– ground game is on a different level to jake’s
– great ground and pound
– good sweeps and transitions
– poor striking defence
– not a natural in any area, goes to wrestling because his striking is
wide open
– wrestling base
– trains at a top camp, iron sharpens iron
– awkward striking with poor defence
jouban o’reilly
– one of the biggest mismatches i’ve seen in the last few years
– lands more than double the amount of strikes per minute
– great cardio
– high level ground game
– badger bad cardio
– 1 dimensional striking
– physically weak
– lazy takedowns
– looks to survive against the cage
– jouban’s kicks and power strikes will be the difference
– only a matter of time before o’reilly gets KO’d
– southpaw
– 4 inch reach
Live Betting Tips
Chatroom, where I will be posting Live Betting Tips
throughout this event.
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Hector Lombard vs Neil Magny Betting Tip Prediction
Hector Lombard and Neil Magny are completely different in terms of
fighting styles, but the one thing that they have in common is that
they’re both very good defensively. Their solid defensive skills have
meant that they’ve both been extremely difficult to finish throughout
their careers. This is backed up by the fact that Hector Lombard has
never been finished in 41 pro MMA fights. Magny’s record is also
impressive having only been finished 3 times in 21 pro MMA fights. These
statistics suggest that there is a very good chance that this fight will
go the distance. As I started to research how both these guys matchup, I
started to find more and more reasons why betting on this fight to last
longer than 2.5 rounds was a good move…
Neil Magny has only been finished 3 times in 21 pro MMA fights and each
of those losses came via submission. Magny has never lost a fight by
knockout or TKO outside of the Ultimate Fighter competition. Hector
Lombard has knockout power, but he doesn’t really pose a threat of a
submission. This is backed up by the fact that only 4 of his 34 career
wins have come by way of submission. Magny is good on the ground
defensively, which means there’s almost no chance of Lombard catching
him in a submission and since Magny has never been finished by knockout
or TKO, you also have to assume that it’s unlikely that Lombard will be
the first guy to hand him a knockout loss.
I believe it’s unlikely that Lombard will win this fight by knockout
because Magny uses good footwork to stay on the outside and circle away
from danger. Magny also has a 9 inch reach advantage, which will make it
hard for Lombard to close the distance and land power strikes. Lombard
does have knockout power, but the 9 inch reach will help Magny to stay
out of a range where Lombard can hurt him.
It’s also unlikely that Lombard will win this fight by knockout because
this is his first fight back in the UFC after being suspended for using
Anabolic Steroids. Fighters who stop using steroids almost always look
less powerful when they return to fighting, so I expect Lombard’s
knockout power to be greatly diminished in this fight.
All these factors point towards it being unlikely that Lombard will
finish Magny inside the distance, but I also feel that it’s unlikely
Magny will finish Lombard inside the distance. This is mainly because
Magny doesn’t have finishing ability from any position. His strikes
don’t have that much power on them and Lombard’s ground game is too high
level for him to get caught in a submission.
Hector Lombard is an extremely skilled fighter and he’s excellent
defensively. He also doesn’t take many risks and he fights very safe.
Lombard hasn’t been finished in his entire 41 fight career and even off
the steroids I don’t see Magny as being dangerous enough to be the first
guy to finish him inside the distance.
All these factors point towards this fight going the distance, which
makes a bet on this fight to last longer than 2.5 rounds a solid bet at
decent odds.
OUR BETTING TIP: 3 Units [3%
of your bankroll] on this fight to last longer than 2.5 rounds at odds
of 1.67 | -149 | 67/100
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Antonio Carlos Junior vs Dan Kelly Betting Tip
Prediction
There’s an old saying that says if you keep applying for promotions,
you’ll eventually end up in a job that you can’t do. I feel that this
applies to Dan Kelly in this fight, because he’s won a few fights in the
UFC against all the odds and after climbing up the ranks he now has to
face a monster like Antonio Carlos Junior.
Dan Kelly has put together an impressive 10-1 pro MMA record because
he’s always had his Olympic level Judo to help make up for his weak
wrestling and poor striking. Problem is… Kelly isn’t a strong grappler
any more because he is now coming to the end of his career at 38 years
old. Kelly’s high level Judo has worked well against the low standard of
opponent that he has faced so far in his career, but it’s not going to
help him against a young, strong, powerful opponent like Antonio Carlos
Junior.
Antonio Carlos Junior has almost every single advantage I look for when
betting on a fighter. I’ll start off by explaining his physical
advantages…
Dan Kelly is now 38 years old, whilst Antonio Carlos Junior is just 25.
This means that Antonio Carlos Junior is 13 years younger than Kelly.
The younger fighter wins around 70% of the time when there is an age gap
this big in a fight and you’ve only got to look at both of these guys to
see why…
Dan Kelly’s body is battle worn and frail. He’s not muscular and both of
his knees are strapped up after years of intense Judo competition.
Antonio Carlos Junior is strong, muscular and absolutely huge. He is
undoubtedly one of the biggest Middleweights in the UFC. He’s also fast,
explosive and very powerful. Without knowing anything about the skills
of both these guys, you can already see that Kelly has got his handsful
in this fight, just by watching how both guys move and look in the Octagon.
If this fight stays standing, I believe it’s only a matter of time
before Antonio Carlos Junior wins by knockout. Kelly just doesn’t have
the reaction times, speed or mobility to block strikes or circle out of
danger. His striking defence is really bad and he’s too slow and too
easy to hit. I don’t see what he can do to defend himself against
Antonio Carlos Junior’s huge power strikes. Carlos Junior’s striking
advantage will be even bigger in this fight because he has a 5 inch
reach advantage over Kelly. This will make it even harder for Kelly to
evade Carlos Junior’s power strikes.
In order to survive, Dan Kelly is going to need to get this fight to the
ground, but this strategy comes with a whole new set of problems because
Antonio Carlos Junior is a super high level Black Belt in Brazilian Jiu
Jitsu. Carlos Junior is also one of the few pure BJJ guys with really
strong wrestling. This was demonstrated in his fight against Eddie
Gordon, where he was able to outwrestle a strong American Wrestler.
If this fight goes to the ground, I expect Antonio Carlos Junior to
dominate. I’m not worried about Kelly scoring a takedown because Kelly
has weak control from top position and Antonio Carlos Junior is very
active off his back. He also does a great job of creating scrambles and
transitioning from bottom position to leg locks. Dan Kelly’s legs are
severely damaged after years of competing in high level Judo and I don’t
think he can survive a young hungry bull like Antonio Carlos Junior
trying to hyper extend his knee. It’s almost impossible to stop Antonio
Carlos Junior from transitioning from bottom position to a leg lock,
which means Kelly is in a world of trouble if this fight goes to the ground.
I don’t feel great about betting on anyone at heavy favourite odds in
the post USADA era of the UFC, but with or without steroids, Antonio
Carlos Junior still holds just about every single advantage over Kelly
that you could want in an MMA fight. Carlos Junior should win this fight
easily.
OUR BETTING TIP: 5 Units [5%
of your bankroll] on Antonio Carlos Junior to win at odds of 1.21 | -476
| 21/100
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Jake Matthews vs Johnny Case Betting Tip
Prediction
MMA is a unique sport because we sometimes see the popularity of a
fighter influence the odds more than their skills in the Octagon. This
keeps happening with Jake Matthews, as the oddsmakers keep setting him
as the favourite, despite the fact that he has massive weaknesses in his
overall skillset. That’s not a dig at Jake Matthews at all. I like him a
lot, but he’s still only 21 years old and he doesn’t have the skills
required to back up his hype just yet. Over the last year we’ve seen
young fighters like Paige VanZant and Sage Northcutt do relatively well
against a low standard of opponent, but we’ve also seen them really
struggle when they go up against an opponent who has superior technique.
It’s not going to be nice to see a 21 year old Aussie get crushed in
front of an Australian crowd, but I do think there’s a very good chance
that Johnny Case absolutely destroys him. Jake Matthews just doesn’t
have the technique to compete with a guy like Johnny Case in any area
that this fight could take place.
Jake’s primary weapon in the Octagon is his wrestling and there’s a good
reason for that…
Wrestling is the only technique in MMA that you can have a decent amount
of success with if you don’t have the best technique… A little bit of
heart, aggression and cardio can go a long way in the Octagon,
especially if your strong enough and powerful enough to take your
opponent down and control them on the ground. Inexperienced and
unskilled fighters like Jake Matthews often start out with a wrestling
based style of fighting, because it’s an effective way to win fights and
it also covers up the big holes that they have in other areas of their
MMA skillset. You’ll also notice that both Paige VanZant and Sage
Northcutt employed a very wrestling heavy style of fighting in the UFC,
but you’ll also notice that they were both beaten relatively easily when
they faced a fighter with better grappling technique for the first time.
I believe there’s a good chance that we will see the same thing happen
to Jake Matthews in this fight because Johnny Case has strong wrestling
and very high level Brazilian Jiu Jitsu.
Jake Matthews is strong, athletic and powerful, but his wrestling
technique is not good. This means that he can use his athleticism to
overpower and control weak wrestlers like Akbarh Arreola and Vagner
Rocha, but he’ll find it much more difficult to use his athleticism
against better technical grapplers such as Olivier Aubin-Mercier, who
absolutely dominated Jake Matthews on the Ultimate Fighter just 2 years
ago. Johnny Case is primarily a striker, but he started out as a
wrestler and comes from a strong wrestling background. Case is 5 years
older than Jake Matthews and when he first started out, his fighting
style was probably very similar to Jake’s right now. Difference is…
Case has had 5 more years to develop his technique and his impressive
22-4 pro MMA record means he has double the fights and at least double
the experience that Jake has.
Johnny Case has really good takedown defence and strong wrestling, but
I’m not 100% sure whether he’ll be able to stuff Jake’s takedowns and
keep this fight standing. And to be honest with you… I don’t really
care if Jake does take him down because Johnny Case has very high level
Brazilian Jiu Jitsu and his ground game and grappling skills are only a
completely different level. Jake does not want to be on the ground with
a guy like Johnny Case, but I guarantee that his lack of experience and
sloppy striking will force him to go for takedowns and when this fight
hits the ground, Jake is going to be in big trouble.
Jake’s takedowns are powerful, but once he gets into top position, he
doesn’t have the technique or knowledge to do anything other than rain
down ground and pound. He doesn’t know how to advance his position and
his offensive and defensive Jiu Jitsu isn’t great. Johnny Case has very
high level Jiu Jitsu and I expect him to put on a grappling clinic if
this fight goes to the ground. Superior technique almost always beats
strength and power and Jake’s slight advantage in power and athleticism
won’t even come close to cancelling out Case’s massive advantage when it
comes to skill and technique.
If this fight stays standing, Matthews doesn’t stand a chance, it’s as
simple as that. His striking technique is simply too basic to cause Case
a problem…
Johnny Case is one of those guys that reminds you why they put the word
“Art” in Martial Arts. His fighting style and technique is simply
beautiful to watch. Case is several levels about Matthews when it comes
to striking and I believe there’s a very good chance that he wins this
fight by knockout. One of the things that makes Case so dangerous, is
his ability to switch stances and instantly fire off a strike. Not many
guys can do this and we don’t even see super high level strikers like
Stephen Thompson uncork strikes within a split second of switching
stances. Case’s ability to switch stance and almost instantly fire off a
power strike from his new position makes him an extremely dangerous
striker because he can catch his opponents with power strikes from
angles that they never even thought was possible. Most switch stance
fighters switch up their stance to confuse their opponent, but their
opponent still has time to acknowledge the stance switch and prepare for
strikes coming from different angles. Case’s stance switch is so fast
that you need to be totally focused 100% of the time to keep up with him
and Matthews isn’t at a level of striking where he’s going to be able to
spot Case doing this yet. I literally cannot put into words how big of
an advantage Case has in this fight if it stays standing, but trust
me… He has a super huge, giant advantage!!!
Iron sharpens Iron and Johnny Case trains at Power MMA with talented
fighters such as Michael Chandler, Myles Jury and Ryan Bader. Jake
Matthews on the other hand is training with a low standard of training
partner in a small gym in Australia. Both these guys are young fighters,
but Case is going to be developing at a much faster rate than Matthews,
because he has surrounded himself with world class coaches and world
class training partners. When Johnny Case gets comfortable in the
Octagon, he’s going to be a nightmare for most guys in the UFC because
he is very skilled in every single aspect of MMA. There isn’t a single
area where you can put him where he won’t be competitive.
Johnny Case is the new breed of Mixed Martial Artist who is great at
everything and has no weaknesses in his game… And he’s still only 26
years old. I expect Case to develop into a top 10 UFC fighter within the
next 2 years and I believe there’s a very good chance that his campaign
to the top begins at UFC Fight Night 85 with a breakout performance
against Jake Matthews. It’s tough to predict how Case will win this
fight because he has so many advantages in every area, but at underdog
odds he’s a great bet and I believe there’s a very good chance that he
will dominate this fight.
OUR BETTING TIP: 3.5 Units
[3.5% of your bankroll] on Johnny Case to win at odds of 2.10 | +110 |
11/10
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Jake Matthews vs Johnny Case Betting Tip
Prediction
The odds are truly baffling on this fight because I personally cap
Amanda Nunes at around 1.40 | -250. The fact that her odds have improved
to almost 2.00 | +100 is unbelievable. If you have taken the time to
properly research this fight, there is nothing you could have seen which
would have made you feel that Shevchenko was a good bet. Literally
nothing. I’m not saying that she can’t beat Amanda Nunes, but I am
saying that Nunes has clear and significant advantages over Shevchenko
that make her a really good bet.
When it comes to striking, I think these girls are pretty even.
Shevchenko has a clear advantage when it comes to speed and technique,
but Nunes has the advantage when it comes to power, movement and
explosiveness. Shevchenko’s weakness as a striker is that she stands
very flat footed. This makes her a static target for Nunes. Shevchenko’s
flat footed, static striking stance will also make it hard for her to
land on Nunes, because Nunes utilizes a lot of footwork and does not
fight within Kick Boxing range. Nunes is either all the way in or all
the way out, which means she doesn’t fight in a range where Shevchenko’s
striking will be that effective.
Amanda Nunes is one of the few Women in the UFC who can strike fear into
her opponent’s when she lands a strike. Her power is on another level
compared to most female Bantamweights and you see this in the eyes of
her opponent’s when she lands a big punch. When Nunes lands on her
opponents, they have a look in their eyes which says that they’ve never
been hit that hard by a girl before and it almost instantly puts them
into a defensive shell and throws them off their game.
If this fight stays standing, I expect it to be close, but Shevchenko’s
fights never stay standing, because she always chooses to engage in
grappling exchanges, even though she has a very low level ground game.
When I watch Shevchenko fight, I almost get the impression that she
doesn’t like to stand and trade, because whenever she exchanges with her
opponent she looks to clinch up and take her opponent down. This is a
big weakness in her fighting style because she has weak hips on the
ground and poor technique which means she frequently finds herself in 50
/ 50 positions. This hasn’t been a problem for her up until now, because
she hasn’t faced any opponents with the ground skills to punish her for
the weaknesses in her technique. Amanda Nunes is different, because she
absolutely has the skills required to punish her for her weaknesses on
the ground. If Shevchenko finds herself in a 50 / 50 position with
Nunes, she’s going to get mounted and peppered with some of the nastiest
ground and pound in the history of Women’s MMA.
Shevchenko’s takedown defence is pretty good, but she instinctively
chooses to go for takedowns and tie her opponent’s up, which will give
Nunes many opportunities to mix it up with her on the ground. Nunes is a
beast on the ground. She’s like a prime Tito Ortiz from top position.
She has the nastiest ground and pound I’ve ever seen from a female in
top position. Shevchenko’s ground game is woeful. She doesn’t have the
technique to compete with Nunes or the ability to improve her position
or defend herself from the bottom. In her last fight she looked like a
beached whale against Sarah Kaufman in the third round. She simply held
onto Kaufman from bottom position and hoped that the referee would stand
them up. Nunes is a beast on the ground and Shevchenko is totally
clueless. I believe there’s a very good chance that Nunes wins this
fight with ground and pound. Either that, or Shevchenko will give up her
back and get caught in a rear naked choke.
Amanda Nunes isn’t a rock solid lock in this fight, but she’s a damn
good bet, especially at the current odds. These girls may be quite even
when it comes to striking, but they are worlds apart on the ground. I
believe there will be a point in this fight where these girls go to the
ground and from there it will be all Nunes.
OUR BETTING TIP: 3 Units [3%
of your bankroll] on Amanda Nunes to win at odds of 1.69 | -145 |
69/100
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Jake Matthews vs Johnny Case Betting Tip
Prediction
The odds are truly baffling on this fight because I personally cap
Amanda Nunes at around 1.40 | -250. The fact that her odds have improved
to almost 2.00 | +100 is unbelievable. If you have taken the time to
properly research this fight, there is nothing you could have seen which
would have made you feel that Shevchenko was a good bet. Literally
nothing. I’m not saying that she can’t beat Amanda Nunes, but I am
saying that Nunes has clear and significant advantages over Shevchenko
that make her a really good bet.
When it comes to striking, I think these girls are pretty even.
Shevchenko has a clear advantage when it comes to speed and technique,
but Nunes has the advantage when it comes to power, movement and
explosiveness. Shevchenko’s weakness as a striker is that she stands
very flat footed. This makes her a static target for Nunes. Shevchenko’s
flat footed, static striking stance will also make it hard for her to
land on Nunes, because Nunes utilizes a lot of footwork and does not
fight within Kick Boxing range. Nunes is either all the way in or all
the way out, which means she doesn’t fight in a range where Shevchenko’s
striking will be that effective.
Amanda Nunes is one of the few Women in the UFC who can strike fear into
her opponent’s when she lands a strike. Her power is on another level
compared to most female Bantamweights and you see this in the eyes of
her opponent’s when she lands a big punch. When Nunes lands on her
opponents, they have a look in their eyes which says that they’ve never
been hit that hard by a girl before and it almost instantly puts them
into a defensive shell and throws them off their game.
If this fight stays standing, I expect it to be close, but Shevchenko’s
fights never stay standing, because she always chooses to engage in
grappling exchanges, even though she has a very low level ground game.
When I watch Shevchenko fight, I almost get the impression that she
doesn’t like to stand and trade, because whenever she exchanges with her
opponent she looks to clinch up and take her opponent down. This is a
big weakness in her fighting style because she has weak hips on the
ground and poor technique which means she frequently finds herself in 50
/ 50 positions. This hasn’t been a problem for her up until now, because
she hasn’t faced any opponents with the ground skills to punish her for
the weaknesses in her technique. Amanda Nunes is different, because she
absolutely has the skills required to punish her for her weaknesses on
the ground. If Shevchenko finds herself in a 50 / 50 position with
Nunes, she’s going to get mounted and peppered with some of the nastiest
ground and pound in the history of Women’s MMA.
Shevchenko’s takedown defence is pretty good, but she instinctively
chooses to go for takedowns and tie her opponent’s up, which will give
Nunes many opportunities to mix it up with her on the ground. Nunes is a
beast on the ground. She’s like a prime Tito Ortiz from top position.
She has the nastiest ground and pound I’ve ever seen from a female in
top position. Shevchenko’s ground game is woeful. She doesn’t have the
technique to compete with Nunes or the ability to improve her position
or defend herself from the bottom. In her last fight she looked like a
beached whale against Sarah Kaufman in the third round. She simply held
onto Kaufman from bottom position and hoped that the referee would stand
them up. Nunes is a beast on the ground and Shevchenko is totally
clueless. I believe there’s a very good chance that Nunes wins this
fight with ground and pound. Either that, or Shevchenko will give up her
back and get caught in a rear naked choke.
Amanda Nunes isn’t a rock solid lock in this fight, but she’s a damn
good bet, especially at the current odds. These girls may be quite even
when it comes to striking, but they are worlds apart on the ground. I
believe there will be a point in this fight where these girls go to the
ground and from there it will be all Nunes.
OUR BETTING TIP: 3 Units [3%
of your bankroll] on Amanda Nunes to win at odds of 1.69 | -145 |
69/100
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Prop Bets for UFC 196 – McGregor vs Diaz
All of these Prop Bets were placed at Paddy Power.
You can place most of these bets at 5 Dimes if
you cannot open an account with Paddy Power.
The odds on Prop Bets vary a lot between different betting websites, so
the odds published below may be very different to what you will find on
your own betting website of choice.
[box type=”error” align=”alignright” ]Some of my VIP members follow my
betting tips to invest their money and make big profits. Other members
follow my betting tips to make watching MMA more exciting. My Prop Bets
are for my VIP Members who want to place bets on every fight, to make
watching UFC events more fun. The variance on Prop Bets is very high and
you should not bet on them if you are serious about making money. I
can’t guarantee that you will make money from placing bets on all of my
Prop Bets. Please only bet on these Prop Bets for fun and make sure you
keep your bets small.[/box]
Conor McGregor vs Nate
Diaz
Conor McGregor to win by KO in round 1 at odds of 2.50 | +150
Conor McGregor to win by KO in round 2 at odds of 4.33 | +333
Holly Holm vs Miesha
Tate
Miesha Tate to win by KO at odds of 13.00 | +1200
Miesha Tate to win by decision at odds of 7.00 | +600
Holly Holm to win by decision at odds of 2.80 | +180
Gian Villante vs Ilir
Latifi
Gian Villante to win by KO at odds of 5.00 | +400
Ilir Latifi to win by KO at odds of 2.00 | +100
Corey Anderson vs Tom
Lawlor
Corey Anderson to win by decision at odds of 1.80 | -120
Amanda Nunes vs Valentina
Shevchenko
Amanda Nunes to win by submission at odds of 7.50 | +650
Amanda Nunes to win by KO at odds of 3.50 | +250
Brandon Thatch vs Siyar
Bahazurdada
Brandon Thatch to win by KO at odds of 2.40 | +140
Marcelo Guimaraes vs Vitor
Miranda
Marcelo Guimaraes to win by decision at odds of 5.00 | +400
Julian Erosa vs Teruto
Ishihara
Teruto Ishihara to win by KO in round 1 at odds of 10.00 | +900
Teruto Ishihara to win by KO at odds of 6.00 | +500
Julian Erosa to win by submission at odds of 4.33 | +333
[divider style=”solid” top=”20″ bottom=”20″]
UFC 196 Picks
[box type=”error” align=”alignright”]Please do not bet on all of these
picks. Please only place bets on our recommended betting tips. We only
post these Picks because we fully research every fight and a lot of our
VIP Members want to know who we think will win some of the fights that
we don’t recommend betting on.[/box]
| Conor McGregor | vs | Nate Diaz | McGregor to win |
| Holly Holm | vs | Miesha Tate | Tate to win to win |
| Gian Villante | vs | Ilir Latifi | Latifi to win |
| Corey Anderson | vs | Tom Lawlor | Anderson to win |
| Amanda Nunes | vs | Valentina Shevchenko | Nunes to win |
| Erick Silva | vs | Nordine Taleb | Silva to win |
| Brandon Thatch | vs | Siyar Bahadurzada | Thatch to win |
| Marcelo Guimaraes | vs | Vitor Miranda | Guimaraes to win |
| Chas Skelly | vs | Darren Elkins | Elkins to win |
| Diego Sanchez | vs | Jim Miller | Miller to win |
| Jason Saggo | vs | Justin Salas | Saggo to win |
| Julian Erosa | vs | Teruto Ishihara | Ishihara to win |
[/private]
