April turned out to be a relatively slow month for us as we floated around break even on virtually all kinds of bets. We’ve been doing great since the beginning of the year, and I hope that after a slow month, we can get back on track with a big month in May.
I don’t have anything too specific to talk about in terms of our results in April, but it was frustrating to finish the month at a small loss on over / unders. This is because we could have avoided taking losses on two bets that I recommended for UFC 261. During my Live Betting commentary for UFC 261, I let everyone know early in the event that I deeply regretted tipping overs on the Crute vs Smith and Oliveira vs Brown fights when I saw how much the crowd was influencing how the fighters performed. This is something that I didn’t anticipate during research, and on a night as crazy as UFC 261, where almost everyone came out super aggressive, there’s no way I would have been recommending over bets because of how volatile things were.
The good news is that we now know that the atmosphere in the arenas is going to be electric as the world comes out of the Pandemic and the UFC starts to hold events in different locations around the world.
We took a loss on our over bets last weekend, but we did learn a valuable new piece of information. We should be able to use this volatility to our advantage on these events taking place in locations where fans haven’t been able to attend events for a while by betting more unders. This is a trend that I think we will see play out for at least 1 year, so I’m hoping that there will be a lot of money to be made from this strategy.
For perspective, 9 of the 13 fights that took place at UFC 261 ended inside the distance, and this was largely down to the fact that many of the fighters were influenced by the crowd and came out much more reckless and aggressive than usual. We will use this information to snipe good value under bets on future cards that take place in locations where fans are likely to be extra lively, having not been able to attend live sports for a while.
|Fight||Research Status||Who I think will win||Who I think is the better bet|
|Dominick Reyes vs Jiří Procházka||Completed||Reyes||Reyes|
|Cub Swanson vs Giga Chikadze||Completed||Chikadze||Chikadze|
|Ion Cutelaba vs Dustin Jacoby||Completed||Cutelaba||Cutelaba|
|Krzysztof Jotko vs Sean Strickland||Completed||Strickland||Strickland|
|Cody Stamann vs Merab Dvalishvili||Completed||Dvalishvili||Stamann|
|Poliana Botelho vs Luana Carolina||Completed||Botelho||Carolina|
|Luana Pinheiro vs Randa Markos||Completed||Pinheiro||Markos|
|Kai Kamaka III vs TJ Brown||Completed||Kamaka||Kamaka|
|Sam Hughes vs Loma Lookboonmee||Completed||Lookboonmee||Hughes|
|KB Bhullar vs Andreas Michailidis||Completed||Michailidis||Bhullar|
|Luke Sanders vs Felipe Colares||Completed||Sanders||Sanders|
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