UFC on ESPN+ 31 is the first-midweek UFC event that we’ve had in a while, and it looks like it could be great for betting.
I’d usually reflect on how we did on the last event in this introduction, but since I am writing this before UFC 249 takes place, I’m just going to wish us luck for this weekend instead!
I’d also like to remind you guys that there are still a few spots available for Live Betting next week. Anyone can sign up and join us for the next 3 events. Click here to check it out.
|Fight||Betting Tip||Who I think will win||Who I think is the better bet|
|Anthony Smith vs Glover Teixeira||No bet||Glover||Glover|
|Ben Rothwell vs Ovince St-Preux||No bet||Rothwell||Rothwell|
|Ray Borg vs Ricky Simon||2 units on Ricky Simon to win at odds of 1.64 | -156 | 16/25||Simon||Simon|
|Karl Roberson vs Marvin Vettori||No bet||Vettori||Vettori|
|Alexander Hernandez vs Drew Dober||No bet||Hernandez||Hernandez|
|Sarah Moras vs Sijara Eubanks||No bet||Eubanks||Moras|
|Andrei Arlovski vs Phillipe Lins||No bet||Arlovski||Arlovski|
|Michael Johnson vs Thiago Moises||No bet||Moises||Moises|
|Brian Kelleher vs Hunter Azure||No bet||Azure||Azure|
|Chase Sherman vs Ike Villanueva||No bet||Sherman||Sherman|
|Gabriel Benitez vs Omar Morales||No bet||Morales||Morales|
Ray Borg vs Ricky Simon Betting Tip and Prediction
It was only a couple of weeks ago that I was recommending a bet on Ray Borg to beat Marlon Vera. That fight got canceled due to the Corona Virus, and since then, the UFC has pulled an absolute madness. Instead of rescheduling that fight, they decided to matchup Marlon Vera with Song Yadong, and now Borg will instead fight Vera’s teammate, Ricky Simon. This makes absolutely no sense, but these are strange times. You have to feel bad for Borg because he went from being matched up against an opponent in Marlon Vera, who was a good style for him, to taking on Ricky Simon, who is a much worse stylistic matchup.
We went deep on this fight in our Livestream research session. I recommend checking it out:
Ray Borg is a relentless grappler who can fight at a high pace for 15 minutes. He has excellent technique, and very few guys can keep up with him. Borg uses his relentless style of grappling to overwhelm his opponents and eventually break them down.
Very few guys can keep up with the pace that Borg sets, but Ricky Simon’s past fights suggest that he can. Simon is a cardio machine. He’s also a strong grappler with an advantage over Borg in striking.
Size matters in MMA, and Borg is one of the smallest Bantamweights in the division. Simon is slightly taller than Borg and possesses a massive 7-inch reach advantage. This size difference will make it difficult for Borg because Simon has that Team Alpha Male style body type, where his short, stocky, compact frame enables him to power out of positions. Merab Dvalishvili could not control Ricky Simon, and he’s much bigger and more physically imposing than Borg. Borg has tighter technique than Dvalishvili and Simon, but he doesn’t have the physicality to control Simon in a position that Simon does not want to be in.
Borg will find it difficult to control Simon on the ground in this fight because Simon is like a coiled spring. As soon as he hits the ground, he immediately pops back up to his feet. Borg’s only hope of controlling Simon will be to take the back, and while that is possible, it won’t be easy because he has short legs, and Simon is very strong.
This is a bad stylistic matchup for Borg because Simon won’t slow down like some of Borg’s recent opponents have. Simon’s striking advantage also means that if he does use his grappling in reverse to keep this fight standing, Borg could quickly find himself in a checkmate kind of matchup.
We have spoken at length over the last couple of weeks about how Corona Virus is likely to affect fighter training camps. It is riskier to bet any fighter now because we don’t know how much their performance is going to be affected by disruptions to their training. What we can say is that Simon fits into the category of fighter who shouldn’t be too badly affected because he never seems to slow down. Borg, on the other hand, is less reliable.
I think Simon’s power, physicality and explosiveness are going to make life very difficult for Borg here. Borg is probably going to find it really difficult to tie Simon up, and that means Borg is likely to be forced to fight in a range where he doesn’t feel comfortable. Simon has the grappling to dictate where this fight takes place, and that’s why I think he’s worth a bet at the current odds.
Reasons for betting on Ricky Simon
Risk Factors with betting on Ricky Simon
My Betting Tip
Ricky Simon to win
[1% of your bankroll]
Decimal = 1.64
Moneyline = -156
Fractional = 16/25
The bookies believe that Ricky Simon has a 61% chance of beating Ray Borg based on their current odds.