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CHICO CAMUS vs KYOJI HORIGUCHI BETTING TIP
Chico Camus and Kyoji Horiguchi are both well rounded, they’re both durable and they both like to fight on the outside and counter punch. When two counter punchers face each other, we are often left with a boring, tentative fight where neither guy inflicts that much damage. Horiguchi and Camus like to point fight and this style of striking often leads to their fights going the distance. This is evidenced by the fact that 9 out of Chico Camus’ last 10 fights have all gone to a decision. It’s also worth noting that 2 out of Horiguchi’s last 4 fights have gone to a decision, with Horiguchi’s title fight against Demetrious Johnson ending just 1 second before the end of the fight. Horiguchi and Camus have proven themselves to be durable and I believe their styles make it very likely that this fight will go the distance. Flyweight fights go the distance more often than not and I believe a bet on this match up to last longer than 2.5 rounds is a good move.MY BETTING TIP: 3 Units [3% of your bankroll] on this fight to last longer than 2.5 rounds at odds of 1.42 | -238 | 21/50
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KAJAN JOHNSON vs NAOYUKI KOTANI BETTING TIP
Naoyuki Kotani is 0-4 in the UFC and after watching all of his recent fights it’s pretty clear that he isn’t UFC level… I believe Kajan Johnson is the safest bet at UFC Fight Night 75 because he’s bigger, faster, stronger and more skilled in every single aspect of MMA. Naoyuki Kotani will be at a disadvantage against almost any Lightweight in the UFC because he’s very small and weak for the weight class. At just 5 ft 8 inches tall, Kajan Johnson will tower over him and enjoy a massive 9 inch reach advantage. Kajan Johnson is much stronger than Kotani and he should be able to use his physicality to dominate this fight. Naoyuki Kotani is primarily a grappler, but he doesn’t possess the wrestling to take his opponent’s down. Kotani also lacks the strength to impose his will or the grappling control to maintain a dominant position. Kajan Johnson has very strong wrestling and he’s an intelligent fighter on the ground. Johnson should have no problems dealing with Kotani’s grappling game and I believe there’s a very good chance that Kajan wins this fight by ground and pound or submission. Kajan’s biggest weakness throughout his career has been his susceptibility to getting knocked out, but that won’t be an issue in this fight because he has a 9 inch reach advantage over Kotani and Kotani has absolutely no stand up game at all. There’s really nothing to say about Kotani’s striking, because it simply doesn’t exist. Betting against a fighter who has home advantage on their side is not usually a good idea, but it doesn’t concern me in this fight because Kajan has experience of fighting in Asia for the UFC and the Japanese fans are traditionally silent during fights. The quiet atmosphere during Japanese MMA events, means that the crowd do not sway the judges opinion on how a fight will play out. In a month where we’ve seen guys like Liam McGeary, Timur Valiev, Josh Thomson and Justin Gaethje capped at odds of 1.10 | -1000 or worse, I find it unbelievable that the odds on Kajan haven’t been set at a similar price. I’m not complaining, but I feel there’s an incredible amount of value available on Kajan’s current line. This is a really easy fight for Kajan Johnson and something crazy would have to happen for him to lose. Here’s a recent video of him talking about this fight and he seems to recognise just like everyone else, that Kotani is an easy match up for him…MY BETTING TIP: 5 Units [5% of your bankroll] on Kajan Johnson to win at odds of 1.39 | -254 | 39/100
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UFC 191 PICKS
| Josh Barnett | vs | Roy Nelson | Nelson to win |
| Gegard Mousasi | vs | Uriah Hall | Mousasi to win |
| Chico Camus | vs | Kyoji Horiguchi | Horiguchi to win |
| George Roop | vs | Takeya Mizugaki | Mizugaki to win |
| Alan Yoshihiri Yamaniha | vs | Kid Yamamoto | Yamamoto to win |
| Mizuto Hirota | vs | Teruto Ishihara | Hirota to win |
| Diego Brandao | vs | Katsunori Kikuno | Brandao to win |
| Keita Nakamura | vs | Li Jingliang | Li to win |
| Nick Hein | vs | Yusuke Kasuya | Hein to win |
| Kajan Johnson | vs | Naoyuki Kotani | Johnson to win |
| Roger Zapata | vs | Shinsho Anzai | Anzai to win |
