VIP Betting Tips & Predictions for UFC 199 – Rockhold vs Bisping

I’m really sorry that these Breakdowns and Prop Bets have been posted later than usual. We are placing more bets on this event than we normally would, so the breakdowns have taken me a lot longer to write. I hope that they are worth the wait and I hope that we can make some money tonight. It’s been a long time since we’ve swept the board, but we’ve come so close over the last few UFC events. I feel really confident that each of our bets will win tonight and I believe there’s a great chance that we’ll go 6-0.

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Click here to read our betting tip and analysis for the fight between Luke Rockhold and Michael Bisping.

Dominick Cruz takes on Urijah Faber in the Co Main event of UFC 199 and I predict that Dominick Cruz is going to win.

There was a time when Urijah Faber was fast and explosive, but mother nature has caught up with him and at 37 years old he appears to be on a steep decline. The current version of Urijah Faber is a very basic fighter that doesn’t pose that much of a threat to someone like Dominick Cruz.

Age is a significant factor to consider in MMA Betting because fighter’s start to rapidly decline when they hit the age of 33. This is because their bodies start to produce lower levels of Testosterone and years of tough competition will start to take it’s toll on their bodies.

Faber is now well past his prime at 37 years old and he has competed in over 40 pro fights. We have seen him get worse and worse from fight to fight over the last few years and he definitely isn’t the same guy that he used to be. He has lost his speed and explosiveness and he now fights with a slow and static style that will render him a sitting duck against someone as fast as Dominick Cruz.

Dominick Cruz has been competing at the highest level of MMA for a long time and he’s still only 30 years old. He also has half as many Pro MMA fights as Faber and he’s still in his prime. Dominick Cruz is 7 years younger than Urijah Faber which gives him a big advantage when it comes to “freshness” because the younger fighter wins around 65% of the time when there is a 7 year age gap in a fight.

I predict that this fight is going to look a lot like the opening scene of the Peter Pan Cartoon where Peter Pan is chasing his shadow around Wendy’s bedroom. Peter is flying around the bedroom trying to catch his shadow, but the shadow keeps slipping away from him. I believe that Cruz will be like a shadow in this fight and I don’t see Faber being able to get near him. Cruz is simply too fast, too long and too illusive for Faber at this stage in their careers.

Urijah Faber is known for being a strong grappler, but I actually believe that Dominick Cruz is a significantly better grappler. Faber has developed a reputation for being a strong wrestler, but he actually has very poor offensive wrestling, which is back up by the fact that he has only successfully completed 30% of all takedown attempts across 25 fights in the UFC and WEC. This is a very poor statistic when you take into consideration the fact that Faber has faced some very weak wrestlers throughout his career. Cruz showed in his last few fights that he has explosive double leg take downs and a strong top game. I definitely give Cruz the advantage when it comes to grappling and I believe he can use his strong wrestling to control Faber if he wants to.

If this fight stays standing I expect Cruz to dominate because Faber only has one weapon which is his over hand right. Cruz should recognise this and easily avoid it, but even if he doesn’t, it’s not like he has to worry about being knocked out because Faber hasn’t won a fight with strikes in over 9 years. Faber only has 2 wins with strikes in 25 fights in the UFC and WEC and both of those KO / TKO wins occured back in 2007.

If this fight stays standing, I expect Cruz to use his unorthodox footwork to stay on the outside and chip away at Faber. Cruz should easily be able to outstrike Faber, which is backed up by the fact that he lands around 30% more significant strikes per minute. Cruz also throws a much wider range of strikes and he’s very unpredictable.

There was a point in time where Urijah Faber had the skills to cause Dominick Cruz problems, but this is 2016 and Urijah Faber is now 37 years old. At this stage in their careers, Dominick Cruz is significantly better than Urijah Faber in every single aspect of MMA. Faber cannot outstrike Cruz, he cannot knock him out, he cannot take him down and he cannot control him on the ground. Faber has no path to victory. This is an easy fight for Dominick Cruz.

Dustin Poirier takes on Bobby Green at UFC 199. I predict that Dustin Poirier is going to win.

Dustin Poirier has a Pro MMA record of 19-4 and he’s only been finished twice in his 23 fight career. He has strong wrestling, high level Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, good technical Boxing, knockout power and fights out of the Southpaw stance. He is a very talented young fighter and yet people still continue to underestimate him. This fight is no different, because I personally feel like he should be a much bigger favourite against Bobby Green.

Dustin Poirier trains at American Top Team, which is one of the best MMA Gyms in the world. He is also the direct training partner of World Champions like Robbie Lawler, Daniel Straus and Will Brooks. Poirier used to fight with a wreckless and overly aggressive style, but over the last few years the Championship mentality has clearly rubbed off on him because we’ve seen him abandon his wreckless style of fighting in favour of a well rounded style that uses controlled aggression to break his opponent’s.

People often judge Poirier based on weaknesses that he showed earlier in his career, but they forget that he is still only 27 years old and hasn’t even hit his prime yet. He is still young and learning and he continues to show improvements from fight to fight. Yes, he did make mistakes earlier in his career, but what young fighter hasn’t? Poirier has had to find his way in this sport whilst competing against some of the best fighters in the world. He has been in the UFC since he was just 21 years old and there are very few guys in the history of the UFC that have entered the promotion at such a young age and held their own for such a long period of time. Poirier has only lost 4 times in 23 Pro fights, which is extremely impressive when you take into consideration the fact that he has consistently fought top 15 guys over the last 6 years. Poirier has matured under the bright lights of the Octagon and I personally believe he is one of the best Lightweights in the World.

Bobby Green is a very easy fight for Dustin Poirier because he is extremely easy to gameplan for. There are no surprises when you fight Bobby Green. You know for a fact that he is going to walk forward and try to bait you into a slugfest. This style of fighting is semi effective against passive counter strikers like James Krause, Josh Thomson and Edson Barboza, but it is not effective against aggressive, well rounded guys like Dustin Poirier. Poirier presents a completely different challenge than anyone else that Green has ever faced because he is better than Green everywhere and he has the skills to mix things up and dictate where the fight takes place. Guys like Thomson and Barboza have no plan B, they just like to stay on the outside and counter strike. Poirier is different because he has a Plan A, B, C and D and his well rounded set of skills enables him to seamlessly switch things up at any moment.

Bobby Green’s style of fighting is only effective when you have better technique than your opponent or the power to hurt them. This means that Bobby Green is screwed because he doesn’t have knockout power and Dustin Poirier is a significantly better striker. These statements are backed up by the fact that Bobby Green hasn’t finished a fight with strikes in over 6 years. Dustin Poirier on the other hand has put more people to sleep than a Swiss Euthanasia Clinic. Bobby Green may look like a tough, dangerous striker, but his fighting style is very one dimensional. All he does is walk forward spamming the same left, right power hooks. This style of fighting will not be effective against Dustin Poirier who has excellent technical Boxing and fights out of the Southpaw stance. It’s also worth noting that Poirier doesn’t back down from anyone, he will meet Green in the middle of the Octagon and exchange bombs. In a straight up firefight, I’d pick Poirier to win everytime because I don’t believe Green has the speed, power or technique to hurt Poirier standing up.

The beauty of Poirier’s fighting style is that he can switch things up and dictate where a fight takes place. If he’s losing the striking exchanges, he can shoot for takedowns and control his opponent on the ground. If he can’t get a takedown, he can grind on his opponent against the cage and beat them up in the clinch. Poirier has the cardio to fight at a relentless pace for 3 rounds no matter where the fight takes place. He can go hard standing up, on the ground or in the clinch. This is a rare skill in MMA and something that Bobby Green is not equipped to deal with.

Bobby Green hasn’t fought in the last 2 years and now he’s coming back against one of the most well rounded, dangerous fighters in the UFC’s Lightweight division. Poirier is young, hungry and super talented and he has the skills, output and cardio to dominate this fight.

Dustin Poirier has developed excellent fight IQ in recent years and he’s better than Bobby Green in every single aspect of MMA. I predict that he is going to win this fight by mixing up his attacks and dictating where this fight will take place. He’ll mix up his takedowns and striking, he’ll work Green against the cage and he’ll look to do damage on the ground. Dustin Poirier is more than capable of dealing with anything Bobby Green can throw at him and I expect him to win this fight easily. Bobby Green is tough and has a great chin, but he’s never fought a guy like Dustin Poirier. I believe there’s a very good chance that Poirier wins this fight by knockout.

Max Holloway takes on Ricardo Lamas at UFC 199 and I believe that Max Holloway will win.

In order for Ricardo Lamas to win this fight, he’s going to have to either outstrike Max Holloway, control Holloway on the ground for prolonged periods of time or finish Max inside the distance and I don’t see any of those scenarios being realistic because Holloway lands more than double the amount of strikes per minute and he also has good enough takedown defence to keep this fight standing. Holloway’s excellent takedown defence has seen him successfully defend 81% of all takedowns across 14 fights in the UFC. Lamas is a strong wrestler, but Holloway has shown that he’s very hard to take down and even harder to keep down. If Lamas does manage to get Holloway down, I expect Max to quickly scramble back to his feet.

Holloway has a big advantage when it comes to striking and he should be able to use his footwork and takedown defence to keep the fight on his terms. As a result, I expect Holloway to win this fight by chipping away at Lamas with his far superior striking. Holloway throws a much wider range of strikes at a much higher volume, so he should easily be able to outpoint Lamas.

This is actually one of the few occasions where Holloway won’t have a reach advantage over his opponent, but he does have a size advantage over Lamas and he fights very long. This will help him to stay out of Lamas’ range and make it easier for him to use his high volume Boxing to chip away at Lamas.

Ricardo Lamas has improved his striking in recent years, but he’s still not a comfortable striker. Max Holloway is different because he utilizes a lot of footwork and can fight out of both the Southpaw and Orthodox stance. Holloway also utilizes a lot of movement and throws a very diverse range of strikes. This means that Lamas is going to find it very difficult to deal with Holloway’s stance switching and footwork. Holloway’s ability to give his opponent so many different looks is just one of the reasons why he is able to land so many significant strikes per minute. He is able to repeatedly land, whilst his opponents are still trying to get their timing, find their range and work him out…

Holloway has been fighting in the UFC since he was just 20 years old and it’s crazy to think that he has already competed 14 times in the promotion. Holloway is still only 24 years old and has an incredible amount of experience for such a young fighter. Being young and talented is always an advantage, but that advantage is amplified when you are fighting against a much older opponent. Ricardo Lamas is now 34 years old, which means that there is a 10 year age gap in this fight. This is a big advantage for Max Holloway, which is backed up by the fact that the younger fighter wins around 65% of the time when there is a 10 year age gap in a fight.

Ricardo Lamas is a solid fighter, but I predict that he’s going to really struggle to deal with Holloway’s speed and volume. He has the skills to make this a close fight, but I don’t believe that he will do enough to win. I expect Holloway to fight smart, fight safe and pick up another solid win over a top 10 opponent.

Hector Lombard takes on Dan Henderson at UFC 199 and I predict that Hector Lombard will win.

Dan Henderson’s overhand right has been branded the “Hendo Bomb” and it will go down as one of the most devastating weapons in the history of MMA. Over the years it has destroyed thousands of brain cells and put some of the best fighters in the world into a deep state of unconsciousness. The “Hendo Bomb” has helped Dan Henderson compete at the highest level of MMA for over 10 years, but all great careers come to an end eventually when mother nature catches up with people.

The Dan Henderson that fought on TRT 4 or 5 years ago would have been a big problem for a guy like Hector Lombard, but the 45 year old 2016 version of Dan Henderson doesn’t stand a chance. In recent years we’ve seen Henderson knocked down by glancing blows and ragdolled in grappling exchanges. This is a far cry from the Henderson that built his career on his Olympic level wrestling and knockout power. We are all fans of Dan Henderson, but this is business and we can’t let nostalgia cloud our judgement. Dan Henderson only has 1 way to win this fight. He needs to land the “Hendo Bomb” clean on Lombard within the first 30 seconds of this fight and if he doesn’t, Lombard is going to close the distance and ragdoll him to the ground.

We also have to be realistic and understand that the “Hendo Bomb” might not be enough to stop Lombard because Hector Lombard has never been knocked out in his career. This is extremely impressive when you take into consideration the fact that Lombard has competed in over 40 Pro MMA fights.

Over the years we’ve seen countless World Class fighters get dropped by Henderson’s overhand right, but Lombard has a chin from another planet and it’s been a long time since Henderson was able to successfully use his most dangerous weapon against a fighter in such good physical condition as Hector Lombard. I’m not saying Henderson can’t win by landing the overhand right, I’m just saying that it still might not be enough to stop Lombard even if it does land…

At 45 years old, Dan Henderson is slow, one dimensional and frail. He has a weak frame, grey hair and slurred speech. He has been ragdolled in recent fights and he has been knocked down with glancing blows. This is not the same Dan Henderson that achieved great things throughout his career. Hector Lombard on the other hand looks like a super hero. He’s fast, well rounded, powerful, strong and very durable. Henderson is in trouble in this fight because he doesn’t have the power, the strength or the speed to slow down an athletic freak like Hector Lombard. There’s literally nothing that Henderson can do to stop Lombard from closing the distance and ragdolling him to the ground.

I know I’ve mentioned the fact that Dan Henderson is 45 years old several times in this betting tip, but I have to keep mentioning it because it’s such a significant factor to take into consideration. How many other 45 year olds are there competing at the highest level of MMA? How many 44 year olds? 43 year olds? 42 year olds? 41 year olds? 40 year olds? The answer is none… And the answer is none for one reason. When a person hits the age of 33 their body starts to produce much lower levels of Testosterone. This causes fighters to lose aggression, motivation and the will to train hard. Lower levels of Testosterone also cause the body to age and get weaker. Dan Henderson is now 13 years past his prime. He should have retired a long time ago. Hector Lombard is past his prime too, but he’s still in great shape and he’s 7 years younger than Dan Henderson at 38 years old. The younger fighter wins around 63% of the time when there is a 7 year age gap in a fight. There aren’t any 40+ year old fighters competing at the highest level of MMA for a reason…

Hector Lombard’s only weakness is that he has poor cardio, but it won’t be an issue in this fight because Dan Henderson doesn’t fight at a high enough pace to test Lombard’s cardio. Henderson’s style of fighting now consists of walking his opponent down whilst looking for an opportunity to land his overhand right. Henderson doesn’t shoot for takedowns, he doesn’t throw combos, he doesn’t pressure his opponents and he doesn’t set anything up. Henderson’s style revolves solely around head hunting and that is a deeply flawed style of fighting in 2016, especially when you’re fighting someone as dangerous and well rounded as Hector Lombard. If Henderson was aggressive and was capable of pushing the pace, he might have a chance of stealing this fight when Lombard started to gas, but Lombard won’t gas in this fight because Henderson won’t be able to make him work hard enough that would cause him to gas.

Dan Henderson has had a long and successful career but times change and this is 2016. He has a puncher’s chance of winning this fight and that’s about it. Hector Lombard will easily win this fight if he can just avoid running into Henderson’s huge overhand right. I expect Lombard to win easily. I don’t see Henderson surviving more than a couple of minutes.

All of these Prop Bets were placed at either Paddy Power, Unibet or 5 Dimes.

[box type=”error” align=”alignright” ]Some of my VIP members follow my betting tips to invest their money and make big profits. Other members follow my betting tips to make watching MMA more exciting. My Prop Bets are for my VIP Members who want to place bets on every fight, to make watching UFC events more fun. The variance on Prop Bets is very high and you should not bet on them if you are serious about making money. I can’t guarantee that you will make money from placing bets on all of my Prop Bets. Please only bet on these Prop Bets for fun and make sure you keep your bets small.[/box]

Luke Rockhold vs Michael Bisping

Luke Rockhold to win in round 2 at odds of 4.50 | +350
Luke Rockhold to win in round 3 at odds of 6.50 | +550

Dominick Cruz vs Urijah Faber

Dominick Cruz to win by KO at odds of 6.00 | +500

Max Holloway vs Ricardo Lamas

Max Holloway to win by decision at odds of 2.00 | +100

Dan Henderson vs Hector Lombard

Hector Lombard to win in round 1 by KO at odds of 2.00 | +100
Hector Lombard to win by KO at odds of 1.53 | -189

Bobby Green vs Dustin Poirier

Dustin Poirier to win by KO at odds of 4.00 | +300
Dustin Poirier to win by decision at odds of 2.40 | +140
Dustin Poirier to win by KO in round 1 at odds of 8.00 | +700
Dustin Poirier to win by KO in round 2 at odds of 11.00 | +1000

Brian Ortega vs Clay Guida

Brian Ortega to win by submission at odds of 2.37 | +137
Clay Guida to win in decision at odds of 4.00 | +300

Beneil Dariush vs James Vick

Beneil Dariush to win by submission at odds of 4.33 | +333
Beneil Dariush to win by decision at odds of 2.70 | +170

Jessica Andrade vs Jessica Penne

Jessica Penne to win by submission at odds of 4.00 | +300
Fight goes the distance at odds of 1.50 | -200

Alex Caceres vs Cole Miller

Alex Caceres to win by decision at odds of 3.75 | +275

Elvis Mutapcic vs Kevin Casey

Kevin Casey to win by submission at odds of 12.00 | +1100
Elvin Mutapcic to win in round 3 at odds of 12.00 | +1100

[box type=”error” align=”alignright”]Please do not bet on all of these picks. Please only place bets on our recommended betting tips. We only post these Picks because we fully research every fight and a lot of our VIP Members want to know who we think will win some of the fights that we don’t recommend betting on.[/box]