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Mickael Lebout vs Stevie Ray Betting Tip Prediction
Stevie Ray opened up as a 1.40 | -250 favourite against Mickael Lebout, which is absolute madness because the odds on him to win should be far closer to 1.10 | -1000. This fight borders on irresponsible matchmaking because Stevie Ray should absolutely destroy Mickael Lebout. Lebout has shown in his recent fights that he has basic striking, a non existent ground game and poor cardio. Stevie can dominate this fight in any area that it takes place and I don’t give Lebout any realistic chance of winning. If this fight stays standing, Stevie should be able to destroy Lebout with his superior technique. I don’t see any way in which Lebout will be able to keep the striking exchanges competitive. I also do not feel that Lebout poses any threat to Stevie standing up, because he doesn’t possess knockout power and he’s very slow and predictable. Stevie Ray has strong wrestling, good control and great takedowns, compared to Lebout who has terrible takedown defence and no ground game at all. Stevie should be able to take Lebout down at will and dominate him on the ground. It’s also worth noting that Mickael Lebout trains at a low level gym in France, whilst Stevie Ray trains at Tristar which is one of the best MMA gyms in the world. Stevie also has cardio for days, he fights out of the Southpaw stance and he has the experience of competing in big fights in Cage Warriors. It’s tough to predict how Stevie Ray will win this fight because he has so many advantages. I could see him winning by knockout, submission or by controlling Lebout on the ground for the majority of this fight. Whatever happens, I can’t see this fight being anywhere near competitive and Stevie should easily win. This is about as close to free money as we’re going to get…MY BETTING TIP: 10 Units [10% of your bankroll] on Stevie Ray to win at odds of 1.25 | -400 | 1/4
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Aisling Daly vs Ericka Almeida Betting Tip Prediction
I believe that Aisling Daly should be far closer to a 1.36 | -227 favourite against Ericka Almeida, which means we’re getting a good amount of value in the current odds on Daly to win.
Ericka Almeida is one of those fighters who only received a contract in the UFC because she stepped up on just 3 weeks notice to fight Julianna Lima at UFC Fight Night 67, when Lima’s original opponent dropped out. Prior to fighting in the UFC, Almeida had only competed in small regional MMA promotions against very low level opponents. Most of the girls Almeida has fought throughout her career have losing MMA records and she has never competed outside of Brazil. Almeida looked completely out of her depth against Julianna Lima and I believe she’s going to find it difficult to deal with Daly’s physicality and aggression.
Ericka Almeida has a lot of challenges to overcome in this fight before it even begins. She has to deal with travelling a long distance, deal with climate change, adjust to a different time zone, eat different foods and overcome jet lag. These are all new experiences for Almeida and elements to fight preparation that she has never had to deal with before. She’s also going to have to deal with a hostile and intimidating atmosphere where she will be competing in enemy territory for the first time. The Irish fans will do their best to support their hometown fighter in Aisling Daly and make the atmosphere inside the arena as uncomfortable as possible.
I believe Daly will be able to walk Almeida down and put a lot of pressure on her and I don’t believe that Almeida has the power to back Daly up. From there Daly should be able to tie her up, control her against the cage or drag her to the ground. I then believe Daly will find it easy to grind out a win by maintaining a dominant position on the ground for the majority of this fight.
Almeida just doesn’t appear to have the strength to deal with the physicality that Daly brings to the table and I don’t see how she’s going to avoid getting controlled against the cage or controlled on the ground.
Pulling guard in MMA is always a warning sign for me, because it essentially means you’re giving up a dominant position that enables your opponent to win a fight. Ericka Almeida frequently pulls guard and this is a huge sign of inexperience. Daly has really solid Jiu Jitsu and she should easily be able to defend Almeida’s submission attempts from the bottom, whilst dominating her from top position.
The only question marks over Daly’s chances of winning this fight are the same question marks that surround her in all her fights…
1. Is she going to struggle with the weight cut?
2. Is her head in the right place?
I don’t believe the weight cut will be an issue for Daly this time around because this fight is taking place in her hometown which means she doesn’t have to cut weight in unfamiliar circumstances. She also posted the picture in this article of herself recently which shows that she is currently in tremendous shape.
Daly’s confidence and battles with depression have plagued her throughout her career, but as you can see in the video below she looks confident, energised and very relaxed.
Aisling Daly has all the skills needed to dominate this fight, she also has home advantage on her side, she looks in the best shape of her life and she’s fighting a very inexperienced opponent who makes a lot positional mistakes.
I believe Daly will win this fight easily. I expect her to put in the best performance of her career.
MY BETTING TIP: 3.5 Units [3.5% of your bankroll] on Aisling Daly to win at odds of 1.79 | -127 | 79/100
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UFC Fight Night Dublin Picks
| Louis Smolka | vs | Paddy Holohan | Holohan to win |
| Norman Parke | vs | Reza Madadi | Parke to win |
| Darren Till | vs | Nicolas Dalby | Till to win |
| Mickael Lebout | vs | Stevie Ray | Ray to win |
| Jon Delos Reyes | vs | Neil Seery | Seery to win |
| Krzysztof Jotko | vs | Scott Askham | Askham to win |
| Aisling Daly | vs | Ericka Almeida | Daly to win |
| Cathal Pendred | vs | Tom Breese | Breese to win |
| Darren Elkins | vs | Robert Whiteford | Whiteford to win |
| Bubba Bush | vs | Gareth McLellan | Bush to win |
