Dana White’s Contender Series – Week 6 Betting Picks, Tips and Predictions

The inaccurate odds that we have seen on many fights recently has led me to believe that Bookies are simply not doing their homework at the moment. This lazy oddsmaking has enabled us to win several big underdog bets over the last couple of months.

The recent epidemic of inaccurate odds has prompted me to research tonight’s Dana White’s Contender Series, and it didn’t take me long to find another excellent value underdog bet. However…

I will warn you that this bet is very similar to the bet we lost last weekend at UFC Fight Night 134 on Khalid Taha to beat Nad Narimani. I still believe Taha was a solid bet at those odds, but those kinds of bets are always a gamble. I want to make it clear to you that the guy we are going to bet tonight also has holes in his game that his opponent could potentially exploit. There are also several unanswered questions surrounding him which could see him struggle.

If you don’t like to lose, you might want to sit this one out. This is a calculated gamble…

Fight Betting Tip Pick
Alex Munoz vs Nick Newell No bet Munoz to win
Chris Birchler vs Jim Crute No bet Crute to win
Mike Davis vs Sodiq Yusuff 1 unit on Sodiq Yusuff to win at odds of 3.40 | +240 | 12/5 Yusuff to win
Jeff Hughes vs Josh Appelt Still researching Still researching
Canaan Kawaihae vs Chase Hooper No bet Kawaihae to win

Mike Davis vs Sodiq Yusuff Betting Tip and Prediction

In many ways, Sodiq Yusuff reminds me of Hakeem Dawodu, who is competing at UFC Calgary this weekend. This is both a good thing and a bad thing because just like Dawodu, Yusuff has very high-level striking but his takedown defense isn’t great. On the plus side, Yusuff does a great job of immediately springing back to his feet when he does get taken down, which is both demoralizing and exhausting for his opponents.

If you go back and watch some of Yusuff’s past fights, you would think that he was primarily a striker, but surprisingly he claims to be a wrestler. MMA Junkie wrote this great article on him last year where he described how he got started in the sport. I recommend you give it a read. The article is a significant part of the story of why I am betting on Yusuff because it reaffirms a lot of the things that I like about him.

If you spend some time Googling some information about Yusuff and check his Social Media profiles, you’ll see that this is a young guy taking the sport very seriously. He only went pro 2 years ago, and despite having only competed for smaller promotions, he is in a position where he can concentrate on training full time without having to work a job. This is rare at his level of the sport, but a testament to his determination. In the MMA Junkie article he talks about the hardship he had to go through coming to the United States from Nigeria and how he is comfortable being uncomfortable. Guys like this can go far in the sport.

Lloyd Irvin has been the Head Trainer of a long list of UFC Veterans including Dominick Cruz, Phil Davis, Brandon Vera, James Vick and Mike Easton. Irvin himself has said that Yusuff is one of the most talented fighters he has ever trained, which is backed up by the fact that he has allowed Yusuff to live with him so that the young fighter could save money and focus on training.

Yusuff is also working with George Lockhart, who is one of the top MMA Nutritionists and Weight Cutting experts in the sport. Guys at Lockhart’s level do not work with fighters unless they believe they have a huge future in the sport, so this is another clear indication that we should take Yusuff very seriously. You won’t see many guys competing for promotions like Titan FC who have a guy like George Lockhart helping them cut weight.

In terms of skills, Yusuff looks great. His stand up is excellent, he’s strong in the clinch, and while we haven’t seen much of his grappling, he claims to have a background in wrestling. It’s also encouraging that his head trainer is Lloyd Irvin, who is predominantly a BJJ based coach. Lloyd Irvin fighters have a long history of being very skilled on the ground.

Mike Davis is a guy who trains at the same gym in Orlando where Mike Perry and Alex Nicholson built their careers. He has spent the majority of his Pro Career fighting for the Island Fights promotion, a promotion that has a long history of matching up Pro Fighters with guys off the street. For this reason, it’s very difficult to gauge Davis’ skill level.

In this matchup we have a guy in Sodiq Yusuff who has had a reasonable amount of success competing in semi-decent promotions such as Titan FC, CFFC, and Victory FC, going up against a guy who has only fought in a very low standard of promotion against a very low level of opponent.

Standing up Yusuff looks incredible. Sharp technique, fast hands, good defensively and throws a wide range of strikes. There is a big question mark around his ground game, but the fact that he is trained by Lloyd Irvin and has a background in wrestling is enough to make me feel optimistic that he can at least handle himself on the ground. I might be completely wrong, but there are always going to be potential weaknesses when you are betting on a fighter at big underdog odds.

If this fight stays standing Yusuff should win easily. If it goes to the ground, I don’t know what will happen, but I am optimistic that Yusuff will at least be able to keep things competitive. This bet is a gamble, but at the current odds, I feel like the risk is worth the reward.

Reasons for betting on Sodiq Yusuff

  • Sodiq Yusuff has a strong team around him. His Head Trainer is Lloyd Irvin and he has George Lockhart helping him make weight.
  • Sodiq Yusuff has very high level striking.
  • Sodiq Yusuff claims to have a background in wrestling, despite only showcasing his striking in all of his past pro fights.
  • Lloyd Irvin fighters tend to be highly skilled in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu.
  • Mike Davis has only ever fought a very low level of opponent, in a very low standard of MMA promotion.
  • Mike Davis has strong takedowns, but a weak top game. In all the fights I watched, his opponents were able to scramble back to their feet or reverse position on him quite easily.
  • Mike Davis fights with his hands low.
  • The majority of Mike Davis’ fights have ended very quickly. We don’t know anything about his cardio.
  • Sodiq Yusuff appears to have solid cardio.
  • Sodiq Yusuff has fought for plenty of semi decent promotions. This will be the first time Mike Davis has ever competed on a big stage.

Risk Factors with betting on Sodiq Yusuff

  • We don’t know anything about Sodiq Yusuff’s ground game. All we can do is speculate.
  • Yusuff was rocked quite easily in one of the past fights I watched.
  • Yusuff is still very inexperienced.
  • This is a huge opportunity for Yusuff. He might crack under the pressure of fighting for a UFC contract.

My Betting Tip

Sodiq Yusuff to win

Recommended Stake

1 Unit

[1% of your bankroll]

Odds

Decimal = 3.40
Moneyline = +240
Fractional = 12/5

29%

Implied Probability

The bookies believe that Sodiq Yusuff has a 29% chance of beating Mike Davis based on their current odds.

50%

Our Probability

We believe that Sodiq Yusuf has a 50% chance of beating Mike Davis based on our extensive research and analysis.

Allsopp
I'm a Professional Gambler from the UK. I specialize in betting on MMA. I've got 1 kid, a Shih Tzu and I've been making money from gambling for around 8 years now.

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