After a rocky start to July, some big underdog bets have helped us to get back on track, and we’re now slightly in profit for the month. UFC on FOX 30 is the last major MMA event in July, and it looks excellent for betting. This gives us a solid opportunity to finish the month strong and set ourselves up for a big end to the year.
UFC on FOX 30 is one of those events where I see a lot of potential betting opportunities. For this reason research for this card is going to take much longer than usual. I always like to be sure before I pull the trigger on a fighter. This means I will often go back and watch fights two or three times before making a decision. For this reason, I would prefer to prioritize research this week over writing breakdowns. As ever, once my research is complete I will go back and add breakdowns for each of the bets. This is one of those weeks where I need to try and get through the fights as fast as possible before the odds decline, but I also need to take my time so that I don’t make any mistakes.
Please don’t hesitate to speak to me in the Chat Room if you’d like to talk about any of these bets in more detail.
|Dustin Poirier vs Eddie Alvarez||No bet||Poirier to win|
|Jeremy Stephens vs Jose Aldo||No bet||Stephens to win|
|Joanna Jędrzejczyk vs Tecia Torres||5 units on Joanna Jędrzejczyk to win at odds of 1.36 | -278 | 9/25||Jędrzejczyk to win|
|Alexander Hernandez vs Olivier Aubin-Mercier||No bet||Aubin-Mercier to win|
|Alex Morono vs Jordan Mein||No bet||Morono to win|
|Austin Arnett vs Hakeem Dawodu||1 unit on Austin Arnett to win at odds of 4.00 | +300 | 3/1||Arnett to win|
|Islam Makhachev vs Kajan Johnson||No bet||Makhachev to win|
|Gadzhimurad Antigulov vs Ion Cutelaba||1 unit on Gadzhimurad Antigulov to win at odds of 2.15 | +115 | 23/20||Antigulov to win|
|John Makdessi vs Ross Pearson||No bet||Pearson to win|
|Alexis Davis vs Katlyn Chookagian||No bet||Davis to win|
|Dustin Ortiz vs Matheus Nicolau||No bet||Nicolau to win|
|Nina Ansaroff vs Randa Markos||2 units on Nina Ansaroff to win at odds of 1.80 | -125 | 4/5||Ansaroff to win|
|Alvaro Herrera vs Devin Powell||No bet||Herrera to win|
Austin Arnett vs Hakeem Dawodu Betting Tip and Prediction
We’re 2-0 betting on Hakeem Dawodu’s fights, and I am hoping to make it 3-0 tonight at UFC on FOX 30 by winning a big underdog bet on Austin Arnett.
In recent months we’ve seen a lot of fights where the odds make no sense. I have lost count of how many times we’ve seen one guy capped as a big underdog in a very close fight. This matchup between Hakeem Dawodu and Austin Arnett is another perfect example of this kind of fight. There is no way on earth Arnett should be a big underdog to a guy like Hakeem Dawodu.
With fights like this where we have one guy as a big favorite and one guy as a big underdog, the odds have often been set with the assumption that the big favorite will be able to impose what he does best onto his opponent and that his opponent will not be able to find a way to exploit the big favorites weaknesses. Well, you know what they say about assumptions…
The bookies assumed that Sean O’Connell would not be able to keep the fight standing for long enough to KO Ronny Markes. They were wrong. The bookies assumed that Corey Anderson would not be able to take Glover down and control him on the ground. They were wrong. The bookies assumed that Philipe Lins would wilt under the pressure of Alex Nicholson’s aggression. They were wrong. They assumed that Sodiq Yussuff would not be able to keep the fight standing against a strong wrestler in Mike Davis. They were wrong. And now they are assuming that a guy like Hakeem Dawodu will be able to avoid getting outstruck standing against a more active striker and avoid getting taken down by a much more accomplished grappler. Let us hope that once again they will be wrong…
This is one of those underdog bets, that could go very wrong like our bet on Darren Elkins. Volkanovski showed up, fought smart and did exactly what he needed to do to win that fight, it was a masterful performance. It’s possible that Dawodu could put in a similar type of performance tonight, but it’s equally likely that he could get outstruck or taken down and dominated on the ground…
Hakeem Dawodu in many ways is similar to Paul Daley. This is both good and bad. He’s devastating standing, but he has ZERO takedown defense and ZERO ground game. Austin Arnett is primarily a striker, but he can take guys down, and he is skilled on the ground. He is the direct trainer partner of Michael Chiesa at Sikjitsu, and he has the skills to cause Dawodu big problems if he can get this fight to the ground.
Standing up Dawodu has much more power and far superior technique, but Arnett has been training Karate since he was three years old and he’s no joke when it comes to striking. He throws a high volume of strikes per round, and he’ll force Dawodu to work harder standing than anyone that Dawodu has fought before.
Austin Arnett has had a tough start in the UFC. On Dana White’s Contender Series he ran into the vicious striker Brandon Davis and then he made his UFC debut against Corey Sandhagen, who is one of the best up and coming prospects in the UFC’s Featherweight division. Arnett struggled in both those fights, but he also showed that he is incredibly tough, well rounded and he can take a lot of damage and still keep coming forward. This is the exact kind of style you need to beat a guy like Hakeem Dawodu…
Austin Arnett will also have a big size advantage with Dawodu standing just 5 ft 8 inches tall and Arnett standing 6 ft tall. This will make it much easier for Arnett to secure takedowns and control Dawodu on the ground and it’ll also make it easier to evade Dawodu’s power strikes.
This is one of those underdog bets where I am either going to look like a genius or an idiot. Dawodu is either going to come out, walk Arnett down and hurt him with his big power strikes or Arnett is going to turn this matchup into a dogfight with his scrappy volume striking, mixed in with takedown attempts. This fight could go either way, and that’s why I feel this is, at worst, a 50 / 50 matchup. In a 50 / 50 matchup, Arnett is a great bet at huge underdog odds.
Reasons for betting on Austin Arnett
Risk Factors with betting on Austin Arnett
My Betting Tip
Austin Arnett to win
[1% of your bankroll]
Decimal = 4.00
Moneyline = +300
Fractional = 3/1
The bookies believe that Austin Arnett has a 25% chance of beating Hakeem Dawodu based on their current odds.
Gadzhimurad Antigulov vs Ion Cutelaba Betting Tip and Prediction
Ion Cutelaba apparently has a background in Greco Roman wrestling, but you wouldn’t know it if you watched his fights against Jared Cannonier and Misha Cirkunov. In both of those matchups, Cutelaba looked like he’d never taken a BJJ or Wrestling class in his life. Jan Blachowicz and Glover Teixeira were able to expose Cannonier for being a very low-level grappler, and yet Cannonier managed to take Cutelaba down on a lazy single leg and control him on the ground for a prolonged period of time. Cannonier also had a lot of success controlling Cutelaba in the clinch. Antigulov is a former World Combat Sambo Champion. He’s a very strong wrestler and a very skilled submission grappler. If Cannonier was able to dominate Cutelaba in grappling exchanges, Antigulov should be able to ragdoll him.
When it comes to grappling, Antigulov is lightyears ahead of Cutelaba. My only criticism of him is that in the past he has given up position chasing long shot submissions. I am hoping that he has corrected this hole in his game after training at American Top Team for the last couple of years. If Antigulov favors position over submission in this fight, he should win easily.
Antigulov’s main weakness is his low level striking. He’s wild and reckless. This isn’t so much of an issue because he never chooses to fight in Kickboxing range. He’s either all the way in or all the way out of his opponent’s range. You’ll either see him bouncing around on the outside or driving his opponent into the cage where he looks to control them or drag them to the ground. Cutelaba is a more skilled striker than Antigulov, but he’s also raw and green. Cutelaba throws arm punches and looping hooks that won’t connect on Antigulov as he rushes in. To catch someone like Antigulov on the way in, you need to throw short, shart, straight punches or be able to land strikes moving backward. Up until this point in his career, Cutelaba has been unable to demonstrate those skills, which makes a KO win for him unlikely unless he can keep his back of the cage and force Antigulov to exchange with him in Kickboxing range.
Based on what I’ve seen in past fights I don’t believe Cutelaba has the skills to neutralize Antigulov’s significant grappling threats. My only concern with this bet is that Antigulov has only gone the distance one time in the last 4 years, so his cardio is a complete unknown. I’m not too worried about this because Cutelaba has terrible cardio and Dagestani Russians tend to have good cardio, but you never know. If Antigulov empties his gas tank aggressively pursuing the finish early, he could get himself into trouble.
I favor Antigulov in this matchup, so at underdog odds, he is a no-brainer bet.
Reasons for betting on Gadzhimurad Antigulov
Risk Factors with betting on Gadzhimurad Antigulov
My Betting Tip
Gadzhimurad Antigulov to win
[1% of your bankroll]
Decimal = 2.15
Moneyline = +115
Fractional = 23/20
The bookies believe that Gadzhimurad Antigulov has a 47% chance of beating Ion Cutelaba based on their current odds.
Nina Ansaroff vs Randa Markos Betting Tip and Prediction
This is a classic striker vs. grappler matchup where Markos has an advantage on the ground, and Ansaroff has an advantage standing up. I think Ansaroff is a very solid bet in this fight because she is very good at defending the one type of takedown that Markos uses to get fights to the ground. The head and arm throw…
If you go back and watch Randa’s past fights, you’ll see that the vast majority of her takedowns come from head and arm throws from the clinch. This is a very risky style of takedown because it’s relatively easy to stuff and even when you do complete it, you risk giving up your back. Ansaroff is strong, athletic and she has powerful hips. She is very difficult to tie up, and when you do tie her up, she does an excellent job of getting underhooks in play early. In the past, she has had a lot of success stuffing the kinds of takedowns that Markos uses to get fights to the ground. Markos is primarily a grappler, but she doesn’t have strong wrestling. All her takedowns come from trips and throws. She isn’t the kind of fighter who will shoot traditional double and single leg type takedowns. When she does they tend to be sloppy, telegraphed and come from really far outside of her opponent’s range.
I believe that Nina Ansaroff can keep the majority of this fight standing and she should easily be able to win a stand-up fight against a low-level striker like Randa.
We also have to take into consideration the fact that Randa Markos has suffered cardio issues in the past and this fight is taking place at elevation, 4000 ft above sea level. Nina Ansaroff does a great job of beating the body up in the clinch, which should accelerate the rate at which Markos slows down.
At almost even money, I believe that Ansaroff is a very solid bet.
Reasons for betting on Nina Ansaroff
Risk Factors with betting on Nina Ansaroff
My Betting Tip
Nina Ansaroff to win
[2% of your bankroll]
Decimal = 1.80
Moneyline = -125
Fractional = 4/5
The bookies believe that Nina Ansaroff has a 56% chance of beating Randa Markos based on their current odds.