PFL 4 Betting Picks, Tips and Predictions

Since PFL launched a few months ago, we have consistently seen inaccurate odds which have resulted in big underdogs winning on every event. Just last month we hit a big underdog bet on Sean O’Connell to beat Ronny Markes at PFL 2.

I have spent a lot of time researching the first 4 PFL events, and I firmly believe that the bookies are not doing their homework when setting the betting odds on PFL fights. I am almost sure that they are Wikicapping these fights based on the win/loss records of each fighter. This presents us with a golden opportunity to make money because fights are not fought on paper, they are fought in a cage.

Alex Nicholson vs Philipe Lins Betting Tip and Prediction

This is another one of those fights where the odds make no sense. There’s no way on earth that Philipe Lins should be a big underdog against Alex Nicholson. At worst this fight is 50 / 50. There are so many reasons why Lins can and should win this fight, and I believe there’s a very good chance we cash another big underdog win at PFL 4.

Philipe Lins started out his career at Nova Uniao, and for the last few years, he has been training full time at American Top Team. If you head over to his Instagram page you’ll see that this guy practically lives in the gym.

When you watch footage of Lins, you can see very quickly that he has been trained to a high level. He has sharp technique, and he’s highly skilled in all aspects of MMA. Take a look at his last few fights to see for yourself:

You’ll also notice from those fights that Lins only has one clear and obvious weakness in that he’s a little reckless, and he gets rocked quite easily. However, this should not be enough to dissuade us from betting on him as a big underdog because Nicholson is also chinny and reckless. Furthermore, Nicholson has broken his jaw 4 times throughout his career. It’s a recurring injury that keeps getting him into trouble. Lins hits very hard, and at Heavyweight it’s not going to take much to crack Nicholson’s jaw once again.

The thing I love about betting on PFL is that the $1 million prize money to the winner of the tournament should ensure that fighters show up and fight smart. They need to play to win. Lins should win this fight if he comes in with an intelligent gameplan.

Skill for skill Philipe Lins is significantly better than Alex Nicholson everywhere. If the fight stays standing, he can use his superior technique to pick Nicholson apart, and Lins should dominate if the fight goes to the ground.

Alex Nicholson has poor takedown defense and a low-level ground game. I am hoping that with $1 million up for grabs, Lins won’t take any chances and he’ll use his grappling to win this fight easily.

Anything can happen in MMA, but with Philipe Lins, we get the opportunity to bet on a chinny fighter with superior technique at big underdog odds against another chinny fighter with sloppy technique and a history of breaking their jaw in fights. This bet is a calculated gamble and a gamble that I definitely feel is worth taking. The risk is definitely worth the reward here.

Reasons for betting on Philipe Lins