World Series of Fighting 19 is the last major MMA event in March and I believe I’ve found two decent value bets that will put a significant dent in our losses for this month…
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JUSTIN GAETHJE vs LUIS PALOMINO
I love betting on guys like Justin Gaethje because you know they’re always going to bring it. At 26 years old Gaethje is young, talented and very well rounded. He uses his high level wrestling as a defensive mechanism to enable him to push forward without being concerned of getting taken down. If at any point he gets in trouble, he can then use his wrestling to tie up his opponents or take them down. This makes him a dangerous opponent for any Lightweight in the World Series of Fighting.
Luis Palomino is a solid fighter, but he’s outmatched against Gaethje and this will be a difficult fight for him. It’s really tough to train for guys like Gaethje, who fight at a relentless pace and never seem to slow down. Gaethje will push Palomino to his limits from the very first second of the fight and since Palomino is now 34 years old, it’s very unlikely that he’ll be able to match Gaethje’s output.
Justin Gaethje has a 5 inch reach advantage over Luis Palomino which will make it a lot easier for him to keep the fight on his terms. Gaethje loves to stand in the pocket and pressure his opponents against the cage and the 5 inch reach advantage will make it a lot easier for him to stay out of Palomino’s range and land the more significant strikes.
Palomino has several knockout / TKO wins on his record, but he doesn’t have that one punch knockout power. Most of his knockout / TKO wins have come from landing powerful combos and breaking his opponents down. I don’t feel he’ll be able to do that against Gaethje, because Gaethje should easily be able to take this fight to the ground if he gets in trouble.
Gaethje should be able to win this fight by overwhelming Palomino with his high output, aggression and physicality. Palomino might have some success early on, but the longer it goes, the more it favours Gaethje.
I also recommend placing a slight insurance bet on this fight not to go to a decision. Gaethje fights with such a high output, that I feel it’s very unlikely that Palomino could win this fight by decision. This means that we’ll limit our losses on this bet if Palomino was able to score a flash knockout to win in this fight.
Justin Gaethje is currently undefeated at 13-0 and he’s won 12 of those fights inside the distance. The only fight that went to a decision was his last fight against Melvin Guillard. That fight was a 3 round fight and there’s no way that Guillard would have survived to a 5th round, because he could barely stand up in the 3rd and Gaethje was still trying to take him out. This is a 5 round fight and I feel it’s extremely unlikely that Palomino will be able to survive 25 minutes inside the cage against Gaethje.
I feel really confident that both these bets will win, which will help to put a significant dent in our losses for the month of March.
The best odds on this fight can be found at 5 Dimes.
MY FIRST BETTING TIP: 5 Units [5% of your bankroll] on Justin Gaethje to win at odds of 1.22 | -455 | 11/50
MY SECOND BETTING TIP: 5 Units [5% of your bankroll] on the fight doesn’t go to a decision at odds of 1.40 | -250 | 2/5
