UFC 212 Betting Tips, Picks and Predictions

UFC 212 is headlined by a main event fight between Jose Aldo and Max Holloway.

During my research I have found a few solid betting tips for UFC 212. We’re 5-1 on the last 6 events and I feel very confident that we can bank another profit on Saturday night.

I also want to remind you that I will be offering my Live Betting Tips for free during UFC 212.

Nordicflight was kind enough to go through our Live Betting results over the last year and he calculated that we’ve gone 32-10 on the last 42 events in live betting. This has resulted in a total profit of over 190 units and an average profit of almost 5 units per event. This is an extremely impressive win rate and I expect to continue this success long into the future.

I urge you to join us in our Live Betting Tips Chatroom during UFC 212 to take advantage of these FREE betting tips that I have been sharing for over a year. Sometime in the next few weeks I will be reintroducing paid subscriptions, so please take advantage of these free tips whilst you still can!

Don’t forget to keep checking this article regularly for updates because we’ll be adding more betting tips as we get closer to the time of the event.

Vitor Belfort and Nate Marquardt are two veteran fighters who have been on a steep decline since the UFC introduced strict USADA drug testing in their organization. Both fighters have a history of using performance enhancing drugs, but Marquardt seems to have lost his confidence, whilst Belfort still shows flashes of his former self.

Betting on a 40 year old ex drug user is never going to be a safe bet, but Belfort does have several things going for him in this matchup…

Firstly, in recent fights he has shown flashes of the speed, power and athleticism that helped him build a very successful career in the UFC. Secondly he has home advantage on his side and thirdly he is fighting an opponent in Nate Marquardt that appears to have lost his confidence.

In order to beat Vitor Belfort you need to pressure him, trap him and ultimately break him, but Marquardt doesn’t have that style of fighting anymore. In his last few fights he has been content to have a friendly kickboxing match and that kind of tactic will not serve him well against Vitor. I’ve also noticed that Marquardt struggles to find his range and he doesn’t seem able to let his hands go. In recent fights he seems to have lost the ability to pull the trigger. You’ll see him correctly read his opponent, get into a good position, motion to throw a strike, but he just cannot let it go. This is a sign of a fighter who has declined to the point where they don’t have the fast reflexes required to compete at the highest level of the sport anymore. Vitor Belfort has also declined in many areas, but he still has the speed, timing and explosiveness that has helped him to become one of the most dangerous fighters of all time.

Vitor Belfort isn’t a rock solid bet, but I’ll take a shot on him at the current odds…

A very high proportion of Women’s MMA fights end up being very close and I believe that this fight will follow that trend and end in a close decision…

I recommend betting on Karolina Kowalkiewicz to win but this bet will not be an easy winner. I expect this fight to be scrappy, close and ultimately someone will win a split decision. Normally I wouldn’t feel comfortable betting against a Brazilian in Brazil in what is likely to be a close fight, but judging in Brazil in the last 12 months has been very good and I believe the current odds on Kowalkiewicz is definitely worth the risk.

The main reason why I have decided to bet Karolina Kowalkiewicz is her ability to defend takedowns and inflict damage in the clinch. She has great balance, a strong core, good takedown defence and she does a great job of landing powerful knees and nasty elbows when her opponent ties her up. The clinch is one of Karolina Kowalkiewicz’s strongest positions and it is also the position in which Gadelha chooses to initiate the majority of her takedown attempts. I believe that Kowalkiewicz has the takedown defence to keep this fight standing or at the very least make Gadelha work extremely hard early on, which will test Gadelha’s questionable cardio and pay dividents later on in the fight.

Kowalkiewicz has many weaknesses, but she’s tough, aggressive and she fights at a very high pace. I do not believe Gadelha has the cardio to keep up with her for 3 rounds, so there’s a good chance that Kowalkiewicz can outwork her and grind out an ugly decision win.

At the current odds I believe that Karolina Kowalkiewicz is very a good bet…

Before researching this fight I didn’t have a strong opinion either way on who I felt would win. I leaned slightly towards Max Holloway but I certainly didn’t plant my flag on either side. You will often see me completely pass on a fight in situations like this where my opinion is split and there doesn’t appear to be much value on either side of the betting lines.

The great part about being an MMA handicapper for as long as I have is that you learn to keep an open mind and also learn ways in which you can avoid confirmation bias. Most of the time when I research fights my initial thoughts prove to be correct, but sometimes I run into situations where my initial thoughts were completely wrong. This fight is one of those situations. After watching footage on both guys I went from feeling like Max Holloway would win to feeling extremely confident that Jose Aldo would win…

I am a big fan of Max Holloway because he is ruthlessly consistent, he has a ton of heart and he is also skilled everywhere. He’s also tough, aggressive and has cardio for days. These are all the characteristics I look for when betting on a fighter, but after watching Jose Aldo’s recent fights I was surprised to see that he is significantly better than Holloway in every single aspect of MMA. Aldo is also significantly faster than Holloway and his striking defence could be the best out of everyone in the UFC right now.

Skill for skill Jose Aldo has all the tools he needs to dominate Max Holloway. But of course we know that this doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll win… MMA is a complex sport, full of deep psychology and Aldo has been fighting for a long time. We don’t know if his heart is still in this game or if he’s going to turn into a wrestler and retire after the fight [thanks Rumble!].

What we do know, without any shadow of a doubt is that he is more skilled than Holloway everywhere. There are no exceptions. He has significantly better striking, grappling and defence. It’s possible that Holloway’s youth, toughness and cardio could see him win this fight, but based on all the information we have right now I believe that Jose Aldo is a great bet at the current odds.

Good luck!