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UFC 214 Betting Tips, Picks and Predictions

At first glance, UFC 214 looks like it could be the best event for betting this year. After scanning the card, I am blown away by some of the value on offer in some of these odds. My top priority now is to try and research every fight as quickly as I can before the odds start to decline. My initial feeling is that we could make a lot of money at UFC 214.

I have a plan for making money on every event. My plan for UFC on FOX 25 last weekend was simple…

I built our strategy around our insurance bet of Weidman vs Gastelum to finish inside the distance. I was very confident that this bet would win, and it did.

I then rolled the dice on two great value fighters in Gian Villante and Thomas Almeida. I fully expected at least one of them to win, which would have guaranteed us a profit for the weekend.

We all knew going into the fight that Villante had bad cardio, but I didn’t think it would matter because he has shown more than enough fire power in his last few fights to handle someone with such poor striking defense as Patrick Cummins. If you had told me that Cummins would have beaten Villante in a stand-up fight, I would have told you that you were crazy. I feel like I predicted how this fight would play out almost 100% correct with Villante stuffing almost every takedown; I just did not think Cummins would be able to avoid getting finished if the fight stayed standing.

I was also disappointed in Almeida’s performance against Jimmie Rivera. Based on my research I felt that every round would look like the 2nd and 3rd round, but Almeida started very slow, and Rivera made him pay in round 1. I knew that this fight would be close, but at big underdog odds, I felt that Almeida was worth the gamble.

Our calculated gambles on Villante and Almeida didn’t pay off, but our insurance bet on Weidman vs Gastelum to finish inside the distance meant that we only made a small loss.

My strategy for UFC 214 will be completely different. I’m not going to take any chances on this event. I am going to bet aggressively on fighters who hold significant advantages over their opponent’s to ensure that we close out July with a solid profit.

This was not a strategy that we could have used last weekend for UFC on FOX 25 because there were no fighters who were significantly better than their opponent’s.

I believe I’ve identified several strong opportunities to virtually guarantee us a profit at UFC 214 and I can’t wait to get back on the horse and bank another profit.

Please keep checking this article regularly for updates because I’ll be adding more betting tips as we get closer to the time of the fights.

DO NOT PLACE BETS ON ALL OF OUR PICKS

In the table below we give our pick / prediction for every fight. This is to help you put together teams in Fantasy MMA or enter Pick’em competitions. Please do not bet on these picks. You should only bet on our official VIP Betting Tips that you can find further down this page.

These picks and predictions are based on which fighters we perceive to have the best betting value. This doesn’t necessarily mean we think the fighter we pick has any notable advantage over their opponent.

The results of these picks are not tracked. We share them with the community because some members use them to enter Fantasy MMA and Pick’em competitions.

FightsBetting TipsPick
Daniel Cormier vs Jon JonesBetting Tip AvailableJones to win
Demian Maia vs Tyron WoodleyBetting Tip AvailableWoodley to win
Christiane "Cyborg" Justino vs Tonya EvingerBetting Tip AvailableCyborg to win
Donald Cerrone vs Robbie LawlerNo betLawler to win
Jimi Manuwa vs Volkan OezdemirBetting Tip AvailableManuwa to win
Jason Knight vs Ricardo LamasNo betKnight to win
Aljamain Sterling vs Renan BaraoNo betBarao to win
Brian Ortega vs Renato MoicanoNo betMoicano to win
Andre Fili vs Calvin KattarNo betFili to win
Eric Shelton vs Jarred BrooksNo betStill researching
Aleksandra Albu vs Kailin CurranNo betCurran to win
Drew Dober vs Josh BurkmanNo betDober to win

Jimi Manuwa vs Volkan Oezdemir Betting Tip and Prediction

This is one of those fights where the bookies have set the odds completely wrong. Right now you can bet Jimi Manuwa at odds of around 1.47 | -213 | 47/100, which is crazy when you take into consideration how big his advantages are over Volkan Oezdemir. I expect the odds on Manuwa to crash to around 1.25 | -400 | 1/4 by the time this fight starts. Please place your bets as soon as possible, because I guarantee that these odds will decline as we get closer to the date of the fight.

Jimi Manuwa is significantly better than Volkan Oezdemir in every single aspect of MMA apart from maybe wrestling, but that likely won’t matter because Oezdemir does not have the cardio to take Manuwa down and hold him there for 3 rounds. Take a look at one of Oezdemir’s fights from just over 1 year ago to see for yourself:

As you can see, Oezdemir has sloppy striking, weak wrestling, a low-level ground game, and very bad cardio. All these weaknesses were also on display in his UFC debut against Ovince St-Preux.

Jimi Manuwa should win this fight easily.

Reasons for betting on Jimi Manuwa to beat Volkan Oezdemir...

  • Volkan Oezdemir has very bad cardio.
  • Volkan Oezdemir has sloppy striking technique and very poor striking defence. Jimi Manuwa has devastating KO power. He should be able to make Volkan pay for his bad technique.
  • Jimi Manuwa is very tough and has good cardio for a Light Heavyweight.
  • Jimi Manuwa fights very calm and relaxed in the Octagon. This enables him to pick his shots and punish his opponent’s for mistakes they make in moments of chaos.
  • Jimi Manuwa has solid takedown defence.
  • Jimi Manuwa has fast, crisp technique. He has significantly better striking than Volkan Oezdemir.
  • Volkan Oezdemir does not have tight grappling control. This will give Manuwa opportunities to scramble back to his feet if he does get taken down.
  • Jimi Manuwa has KO power in every strike.
  • Volkan Oezdemir is very low level in all areas.
  • Jimi Manuwa has a 4 inch reach advantage over Volkan Oezdemir.

Risk factors with betting on Jimi Manuwa to win...

  • Volkan Oezdemir is very tough.
  • Volkan Oezdemir is very aggressive in the first round. He always starts strong.
  • Jimi Manuwa has a low level ground game.

Our Betting Tip

Jimi Manuwa to win

Stake

3.5 Units

[3.5% of your bankroll]

Odds

Decimal = 1.47
Moneyline = -213
Fractional = 47/100

68%

Implied Probability

The bookies believe that Jimi Manuwa has a 68% chance of beating Volkan Oezdemir based on their current odds.

80%

Our Probability

We believe that Jimi Manuwa has an 80% chance of beating Volkan Oezdemir based on our extensive research and analysis.

Cris Cyborg vs Tonya Evinger and Demian Maia vs Tyron Woodley Betting Tip and Prediction

Last weekend we made money betting on Weidman vs Gastelum to NOT GO the distance and I have two more bets like this which I recommend parlaying together into a two leg accumulator.

I don’t usually give out betting tips like this because the betting limits are often very low, but they were high for the Weidman vs. Gastelum fight and they are also high for these two fights. In the past, I have found it difficult to bet just $50 on a single betting website on a bet like this, but I have just been able to bet $1000 at a major European Betting website which is a good indication that the limits are very high on these two fights.

I recommend betting on Cyborg vs Evinger and Woodley vs Maia both to NOT GO the distance.

Parlaying both of these bets together pays around 1.41 | -224 | 41/100, which gives us a very good return because I honestly don’t see how this bet can lose.

Reasons for betting on these fights to NOT GO the distance...

  • Cris Cyborg has only fought to a decision twice in 18 pro fights.
  • Tonya Evinger has only fought to a decision 4 times in 25 pro fights.
  • Tonya Evinger has very bad striking defence and Cris Cyborg has KO power in every strike.
  • Nobody has ever survived 25 minutes in the cage with Cyborg.
  • Tonya Evinger has very bad cardio.
  • Tonya Evinger is a natural Bantamweight she is fighting up a weight class for this matchup.
  • Cris Cyborg has good enough takedown defence to keep this fight standing. There is no way that Evinger can survive 5 rounds standing with Cyborg.
  • Demian Maia has very low level striking and Tyron Woodley has KO power in every strike.
  • Both Woodley and Maia have extremely bad cardio. Neither of them will be able to fight at a high pace for 25 minutes.
  • Woodley does not have the cardio required to survive 25 minutes on the ground with Maia.

Risk factors with betting on these fights to NOT GO the distance...

  • Anything can happen in MMA.

Our Betting Tip

Parlay both these fights to NOT GO the distance

Stake

5 Units

[5% of your bankroll]

Odds

Decimal = 1.41
Moneyline = -224
Fractional = 41/100

71%

Implied Probability

The bookies believe that this bet has a 71% chance of winning based on their current odds.

90%

Our Probability

We believe that this bet has a 90% chance of winning based on our extensive research and analysis.

Daniel Cormier vs Jon Jones Betting Tip and Prediction

Daniel Cormier looked terrible when he weighed in for his fight against Jon Jones. He has looked dehydrated and unhealthy all week, and this will have a significant impact on his ability to perform to his full potential. There’s no way he can go from looking like he did at the weigh ins to getting back to full strength in time for his fight against Jon Jones tomorrow night. USADA has changed everything and Cormier can no longer use an IV to rehydrate. I don’t see how he can go from being this dehydrated to being able to compete for 25 minutes at a very high pace in less than 36 hours. It takes the body much longer than this to recover.

Cormier has been performing at a much higher level than someone his age should be able to perform at for many years, but you can only hide from Father time and Mother nature for so long. Cormier’s increasing difficulty to make weight and his mounting injuries are a sign that his body is on a steep decline.

In contrast, Jon Jones looks incredible. His skin is glowing, his body looks full of life, and he is radiating health.

Daniel Cormier is now 38 years old and well past his athletic prime. We know that the male body starts to rapidly decline when we go past the age of 33 because we start to produce much lower levels of Testosterone with every passing year. Cormier will have substantially declined since the last time he fought Jon Jones, while it is likely that Jones has improved. At just 30 years old Jon Jones is still in his prime, while Daniel Cormier is coming to the end of his career.

Daniel Cormier has the skills and toughness to make this a close fight, but I believe he will struggle to edge Jon Jones over the course of 25 minutes. The size difference between Cormier and Jones is just one of the many challenges that Cormier needs to overcome:

I expect this fight to be a war, but when it’s all over, Jon Jones should be the guy who gets his hand raised. This is simply too big of a challenge for Cormier to overcome at this stage in his career.

Reasons for betting on Jon Jones to beat Daniel Cormier...

  • Jon Jones has a significant size and reach advantage over Daniel Cormier. Jones is 4 inches taller and has a staggering 12 inch reach advantage. Fighters with 10 inches of reach or more over their opponent win around 70% of the time.
  • Jon Jones is 8 years younger than Daniel Cormier. The younger fighter wins around 68% of the time when there is an 8 year age gap in a fight.
  • Daniel Cormier has been hurt by body kicks in the past. Jon Jones has now incorporated nasty body kicks into his striking arsenal. These kicks were on display in his fight against Ovince St-Preux. Jones did not use these kicks in their first fight and he hinted at targeting Cormier’s body in one of the Embedded videos posted this week. I believe that these Muay Thai based body kicks will be a big part of Jon’s strategy and I also believe they are capable of hurting Cormier badly.
  • At this stage in their careers Jon Jones is significantly better than Daniel Cormier in every single aspect of MMA.
  • Jon Jones is incredibly tough. He has an excellent chin.
  • Jon Jones has excellent cardio.
  • Jon Jones can beat Daniel Cormier wherever this fight takes place. He can dominate in the clinch, on the ground or in the striking exchanges.
  • Jon Jones is a very intelligent fighter. He rarely takes risks, but he does exactly what he needs to do to put his stamp on rounds.
  • Even if Jon Jones has declined since USADA came into effect, historical data shows us that Daniel Cormier will likely have declined more.
  • Daniel Cormier has historically struggled against long, rangey opponents.

Risk factors with betting on Jon Jones to win...

  • Daniel Cormier is extremely tough.
  • Daniel Cormier has shown historically he can fight at a high pace for 25 minutes, although I believe it’s unlikely he’ll be able to keep up this pace against Jon Jones.
  • Jon Jones could have declined significantly since USADA came into effect, although his technique, speed, cardio and strength all looked good in his one fight since USADA against Ovince St-Preux.

Our Betting Tip

Jon Jones to win

Stake

4 Units

[4% of your bankroll]

Odds

Decimal = 1.40
Moneyline = -250
Fractional = 2/5

71%

Implied Probability

The bookies believe that Jon Jones has a 71% chance of beating Daniel Cormier based on their current odds.

85%

Our Probability

We believe that Jon Jones has an 85% chance of beating Daniel Cormier based on our extensive research and analysis.

About Allsopp

Allsopp
I am the owner of this website and my goal is to build a strong community that is focused on helping each other make money betting on MMA.

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