UFC Fight Night 114 Betting Tips, Picks and Predictions

UFC Fight Night 114 takes place in Mexico City which means we need to factor in how the poor quality air and high altitude is going to impact each of the fighters.

Historically we see a lot more fights go the distance at high altitude because after the first few minutes fighters tend to be too tired to go for the finish. We also see their knockout power significantly diminish because their muscles fill up with blood making their arms heavy. We also see fewer submissions in high altitude conditions because fighters tend to sweat a lot more, much sooner into the fight which makes it easy for them to slip out of bad positions.

UFC events in Mexico City tend to be risky for betting because we never know how a fighter is going to look competing at high altitude until we see them go through it. This means that fighters that live in Mexico City or who have fought in Mexico City previously have a significant advantage because their bodies will have adjusted to the conditions or they will at least know how it will feel to compete under those conditions.

It’s also worth noting that the quality of air in Mexico City is particularly bad because it is full of pollution. This means that training at a high altitude facility is not enough to prepare for the high altitude of Mexico City. In the past, we have seen fighters who trained at altitude in Colorado, New Mexico, and Big Bear struggle in Mexico City because the type of air is completely different to what they were expecting.

A big part of my research for this event will be to go through each fighter’s Social Media profiles and try to determine who has gone to Mexico City early to climatize. The fighters that do go out early have a huge advantage, so this will form a critical part of my decision making for our betting tips this week.

Please keep checking this article regularly for updates because I’ll be adding more betting tips as we get closer to the time of the event.

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DO NOT PLACE BETS ON ALL OF OUR PICKS

In the table below we give our pick / prediction for every fight. This is to help you put together teams in Fantasy MMA or enter Pick’em competitions. Please do not bet on these picks. You should only bet on our official VIP Betting Tips that you can find further down this page.

These picks and predictions are based on which fighters we perceive to have the best betting value. This doesn’t necessarily mean we think the fighter we pick has any notable advantage over their opponent.

The results of these picks are not tracked. We share them with the community because some members use them to enter Fantasy MMA and Pick’em competitions.

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Alexa Grasso vs Randa Markos Betting Tip and Prediction

Earlier this week I recommended that you bet 2 units on Alexa Grasso to beat Randa Markos, but after recent events, I now recommend that you hedge out of your bet.

WHAT HAPPENED?

Alexa Grasso missed weight by 3 pounds. She weighed in at 119lbs instead of the Strawweight limit of 116lbs.

Initially, I wasn’t too concerned by this because she looked great at the weigh ins. Missing weight only tends to be an issue when a fighter has to dehydrate themselves severely to make weight. Fighters who miss weight by a wide margin like Grasso did, don’t usually underperform because they did not deplete their bodies trying to make weight. It is often considered to be a dirty tactic because they decided to quit trying to cut weight sooner which means that their body probably did not suffer as badly as their opponent who did make weight. This often means that they are stronger and fresher come fight time. If anything it can be seen as an advantage. As you can see in the video below, Grasso looked great when she weighed in earlier today:

I sent an email out to you earlier recommending that we stick with our 2 unit bet on Grasso to win, but new information has just come to light which means that I now recommend hedging out of your bet.

Alexa Grasso just posted on Instagram that she is currently suffering from a Urinary Tract Infection:

The Instagram post can be translated into saying:

“Today was the weigh-in of #UFCMEXICO and unfortunately did not give the weight. First of all I want to apologize to UFC and especially to my opponent Randa Markos.

I know that failure in weight is not good or excuse, I had never failed in any weighing. My food and all my camp was excellent, I had the bad luck to be in my period and the serious thing is that I had an infection in the urinary tract.

The doctors checked me and together with my team decided that it was better to stop the cut and start with antibiotics as soon as possible. I want you to know what happened and that my health is always first. The fight is still on and tomorrow I’ll leave everything on the octagon. Thank you for your understanding and support.”

 

Urinary Tract Infections differ greatly in severity, but the pain can be debilitating. It’s also worth noting that Antibiotics can take up to a week to work, so even though Grasso may feel ok now, the pain could get a lot worse by the time the fight starts. Urinary Tract Infections can get worse before they get better, so there’s really no way to know how Grasso is going to feel on fight night.

A couple of years ago Irene Aldana who trains with Alexa Grasso at the same gym fought Tonya Evinger while suffering from the Flu and she massively underperformed. As a result of this, I am concerned that fighters from this team may choose to fight even when they get sick, hurt or injured.

Alexa Grasso is young and inexperienced, and I ‘m worried that she is still going ahead with this fight because she doesn’t want to let the UFC down. For these reasons I now recommend that you hedge out of your bet.

HOW DO I HEDGE OUT OF MY BET?

You can hedge out of your bet easily, which will result in a roughly break even result on this fight.

I now recommend betting 1.5 units on Randa Markos to win at odds of 2.30 | +130 | 13/10, in addition to our 2 unit bet on Alexa Grasso to win at odds of 1.74 | -135 | 37/50.

This means that:

If Alexa Grasso wins we’ll make a loss of 0.02 units.

If Randa Markos wins we’ll make a loss of 0.05 units.

Both losses are negligible and will be recorded as a break even result.

You may have to play around with the number of units you hedge your bet with to get as close to break even as possible depending on what odds you initially bet Grasso at. Please don’t hesitate to contact me in the forum, chat room or directly by email [info@mmabettingtips.com] if you’d like some help with how to hedge your bet.

I strongly recommend that you hedge your bet as soon as possible because if Grasso’s odds improve, the margin for your loss will get bigger.

I understand that this is disappointing, but I would much prefer to pull out of this bet now we know what we are facing.

I still think Grasso will win this fight, but there’s also now a very high chance that she could significantly underperform.

Please don’t hesitate to reach out to me on the Forums, Chat Room or by email [info@mmabettingtips.com] if you would like to discuss why I have made this decision.

Diego Rivas vs Jose Quinonez Betting Tip and Prediction

Diego Rivas is tough and scrappy, but in his last two fights, he has shown us that he has an extremely low-level ground game. His ground game is so bad that no amount of toughness or skill will help him have a career in the UFC unless he tightens up these weaknesses.

Rivas is only 25 years old and hasn’t fought in 18 months, so it’s possible that within that time he has improved his ground game, but it is improbable that he will have improved enough to be competitive on the ground with Jose Quinonez. A far more probable scenario is that an 18-month layoff will have an adverse impact on his performance rather than a positive one.

Rivas also has many other challenges to overcome if he wants to beat Jose Quinonez…

Firstly he has only fought one time in almost three years. This is very bad for a young, developing fighter who needs real life competitive experience to grow as an athlete.

Rivas is also at a significant disadvantage because he has chosen not to travel to Mexico City early to adjust to the high altitude conditions. Quinonez has been training in Mexico City for over a month and has had previous experience competing at high altitude back at UFC 180 against Alejandro Perez.

Diego Rivas is tough, but toughness can only take you so far before you need the skills to back it up. Quinonez has an enormous grappling advantage as well as having home advantage on his side. The fact that he has chosen to go and train in Mexico City for that last few weeks is just another reason why Quinonez is an excellent bet in this fight.

Reasons for betting on Jose Quinonez to beat Diego Rivas...

  • Diego Rivas has an exceptionally low level ground game. It’s very rare that we see fighters enter the UFC with a ground game as bad as his.
  • Diego Rivas gives up his back when defending takedowns and also gives up his back easily on the ground. Jose Quinonez does a great job of taking the back quickly and sinking in a rear naked choke.
  • Jose Quinonez does a great job of chaining takedowns together and his long frame enables him to secure full body looks and trips.
  • Jose Quinonez is a Southpaw.
  • Jose Quinonez went to Mexico City early to train and adjust to the high altitude conditions. Diego Rivas did not do this. He didn’t arrive in Mexico City until fight week.
  • Jose Quinonez has competed at high altitude in the past at UFC 180.
  • Jose Quinonez is Mexican, so he’ll have home advantage for this fight.
  • Jose Quinonez has nasty ground and pound, his long frame enables him to inflict a lot of damage from top position.
  • Jose Quinonez trains at Alliance MMA and is making massive improvements from fight to fight.
  • Diego Rivas hasn’t fought in 18 months and has only fought 1 time in the last 3 years.

Risk factors with betting on Jose Quinonez to win...

  • Jose Quinonez is reckless and wild. He has shown bad fight IQ in the past although he appears to be maturing.
  • Diego Rivas is tough and scrappy.
  • Diego Rivas is only 25 and hasn’t fought in over 18 months so it’s possible he could have improved a lot since we last saw him. However… An 18 month layoff is far more likely to cause ring rust and have a negative impact on his performance.

Our Betting Tip

Jose Quinonez to win

Stake

4 Units

[4% of your bankroll]

Odds

Decimal = 1.47
Moneyline = -213
Fractional = 47/100

68%

Implied Probability

The bookies believe that Jose Quinonez has a 68% chance of beating Diego Rivas based on their current odds.

80%

Our Probability

We believe that Jose Quinonez has an 80% chance of beating Diego Rivas based on our extensive research and analysis.

Allsopp
I am the owner of this website and my goal is to build a strong community that is focused on helping each other make money betting on MMA.

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