UFC 227 Betting Tips, Picks and Predictions

This week I’ve been busy researching PFL 5 and Dana White’s Contender Series, but now that those events are done, I turn my attention to UFC 227. Over the next couple of days, I will be working really hard to try and uncover some decent bets so that we can continue our winning run. We have now made a profit on the last 4 consecutive events from our prefight bets, and I am determined to make it 5 in a row.

July was one of the few months during the last 4 years where we made more money from prefight bets than my highly profitable Live Betting Tips.

Nothing has gone our way in Live Betting recently, and it’s fair to say that this is the worst run I’ve had since I started Live Betting on the UFC almost 8 years ago. This is disappointing, but also kind of funny because over the last 3 months we’re only down around 10 units. Not bad when you consider we made around 177 units of profit in the previous 12 months. Over the last 2 – 3 months it’s been a grind, but in the big picture, we have to expect to pay taxes from time to time.

All of these numbers come from the brand new results page that I have been building over the last few months. It’s almost finished now, and I’ll be launching it sometime in the next two weeks. The new results page features multiple charts that will enable you to measure our profit and loss from month to month. I’ll let you know when it’s ready to check out.

Our current run of flat results in Live Betting has not bothered me at all, because I’ve been through this many times before and I know that spring always follows winter. We’ve come super close to hitting some monster paydays recently and I know that it won’t be long before we are all car shopping and vacation shopping once again. Which brings me onto my next topic…

If you were in the Chat Room earlier this week, you might have heard me freaking out over BT Sport losing the TV broadcasting rights to the UFC in the UK. This is a big deal and the single biggest threat to our community since I launched the website 4 years ago.

Generally speaking, at least in the short term, this could potentially be very bad for us. For that reason, I urge you to make the most of my Live Betting service over the next few months, because there is a very real possibility that we will not be able to Livebet on the UFC after December 3rd when the current BT Sport deal runs out.

Right now all we know for sure is that BT Sport has lost the rights to broadcast the UFC in the UK to a new media company called Eleven Sports. This is a big issue right now because all the major betting websites that offer decent liquidity on Live Betting the UFC are UK or Irish based companies. Generally speaking, betting websites don’t like to offer Live Betting on sports that are not on TV, and when they do, the max bet limits tend to be very low.

As it stands, Eleven Sports have not confirmed whether they will be launching traditional TV channels on cable services like Sky or Virgin. All they have officially said is that they will be launching two online channels through their own web platform in their quest to become “The Netflix of Sports”. Their web platform is scheduled to release sometime in August although no prices have yet been announced.

There are rumors that Eleven Sports will be launching these channels on Sky TV and Virgin by the time the BT Sport deal runs out, but so far all we have to go on is a report by a TalkSport journalist on their Fight Disciples podcast. I really want to share the optimism of the journalists and believe the positive news that they shared on this podcast, but I remain sceptical until we get a direct announcement from someone at Eleven Sports. You can listen to the podcast below:


It has been a long time since we had to worry about an issue like this. The last time the UFC broadcasting rights changed hands in the UK was when Setanta Sports went bankrupt 5 years ago, and BT Sport took over. That was a smooth transition because BT Sport already had TV channels in place when the switch was completed. Right now my main concern is that come December 3rd we’ll only be able to watch UFC through the Eleven Sports website. If this is the case, then I believe the major betting websites may stop offering Live Betting on UFC, and if they continue I am pretty sure the max bet limits will be significantly lower than what they are now. A lot of liquidity will leave Live Betting on UFC if the only way to watch the sport in the UK will be through a website.

Right now I am doing everything I can to put us in a strong position for whatever happens on December 3rd. Earlier this week I bought a subscription to Sky TV, so that we’re already set up in the hope that Eleven Sports do launch traditional TV channels in time for their first UFC event. I am also going to spend a lot of time over the next few months learning to Live Bet on Football. Without too much research I was able to earn around £4000 profit in just 1 month Live Betting on the World Cup, so I am optimistic I’ll be able to make a long-term profit Live Betting on Football. I assure you that this is not going to compromise the work I put into MMA, it’s merely a hedge in case we are no longer able to Live Bet on the UFC after December 3rd. Who knows, by the beginning of next year we may be in an even stronger position than we are now. Andrew has shown over the last few months that astute betting skills can easily transfer over into other sports. His excellent Betting Tips on Darts and Boxing are proof that it’s not just MMA that can be profitable.

I will continue to update you with more news regarding the Eleven Sports deal whenever new information gets released.

Fight Betting Tip Pick
Cody Garbrant vs TJ Dillashaw No bet Dillashaw to win
Demetrious Johnson vs Henry Cejudo No bet Johnson to win
Cub Swanson vs Renato “Moicano” Carneiro No bet Moicano to win
Polyana Viana vs JJ Aldrich No bet Aldrich to win
Kevin Holland vs Thiago Santos No bet Santos to win
Brett Johns vs Pedro Munhoz No bet Munhoz to win
Montel Jackson vs Ricky Simon 2 units on Montel Jackson to win at odds of 1.90 | -111 | 9/10 Jackson to win
Matt Sayles vs Sheymon Moraes No bet Sayles to win
Alex Perez vs Jose Torres No bet Torres to win
Kyung Ho Kang vs Ricardo Ramos 1 unit on Kyung Ho Kang to win at odds of 2.75 | +175 | 7/4 Kang to win
Danielle Taylor vs Weili Zhang No bet Zhang to win
Marlon Vera vs Wuliji Buren No bet Vera to win

Kyung Ho Kang vs Ricardo Ramos Betting Tip and Prediction

The fight between Kyung Ho Kang and Ricardo Ramos has got fight of the night written all over it. That’s a bold statement considering UFC 227 is host to other fights that are guaranteed to end in fireworks like Cody Garbrandt vs. TJ Dillashaw. You can be sure that as soon as this fight begins, Kang and Ramos are going to go to war. This is going to be a wild fight and another example of how the bookies are totally out of their minds for capping either of these guys as a moderate underdog. This odds on this fight should be much closer to even.

Kyung Ho Kang and Ricardo Ramos are two excellent fighters who are dangerous and skilled in all aspects of MMA. Both guys are capable of finishing each other standing up or on the ground, and that’s what makes this a thrilling contest.

Ricardo Ramos is a strong wrestler with excellent top control and explosive knockout power. He uses his wild striking to get inside and work for takedowns, which Kang won’t mind because he also likes to mix it up on the ground.

Ramos’ main weakness is that he tends to slow down significantly as his fights progress. He comes out the gate extremely fast, and at just 23 years old he has not yet learned to pace himself. I believe Ramos’ poor cardio alone makes Kang a great bet here because even if Ramos had planned to start slower and pace himself, he won’t be allowed to because Kang fights at a crazy pace and does a great job of creating total chaos in the Octagon. Kang will force Ramos to engage for every single second of the 15 minutes they spend in the cage together and Ramos simply does not have the striking technique, power or grappling control to prevent Kang from turning this into a dogfight.

Kang wouldn’t have any weaknesses if there were no time limits in MMA, but unfortunately, there are time limits, so his reckless style of fighting often puts him in bad positions that he doesn’t have enough time to work out of.

Kang is an excellent striker, a strong wrestler and super high level on the ground, but he’s also a fighter who is literally trying to kill his opponent. He has no interest in fighting smart, maintaining position or trying to win rounds. He’s either trying to choke his opponent unconscious or put a hole in their head. This means that he will often take risks and give up position while working for submissions. He’ll also frequently throw wild spinning attacks that put him at risk of being taken down. Kang isn’t concerned with this because he loves to mix it up on the ground, but it does give his opponent’s a window of opportunity to steal rounds from him. Ramos does not strike me as that tactical of a fighter, so hopefully, it won’t cost Kang on Saturday night.

I believe that Kang is equal to or better than Ramos in every single aspect of MMA. His wild style of fighting means that it’s always going to be a gamble when we bet on him, but at worst this is a 50 / 50 fight. Kang is a great bet here as a decent sized underdog. Ramos is young and inexperienced, and Kang is a madman. He will put Ramos into positions that he has never been in before. I believe there’s a good chance that Kang finds a way to finish Ramos inside the distance.

Reasons for betting on Kyung Ho Kang

  • Kyung Ho Kang is equal to, or better than Ricardo Ramos in every single aspect of MMA.
  • Kang trains at Tiger Muay Thai and appears to make big improvements from fight to fight.
  • Kang is absolutely spectacular from a technical perspective. He has airtight technique when it comes to every single aspect of MMA. His striking is crisp and technical, his wrestling is flawless and he’s extremely dangerous on the ground.
  • Ricardo Ramos has poor cardio. He tends to slow down significantly in the second round of his fights.
  • Kang is super aggressive and fights at an extremely high pace. Ramos does not have the cardio to keep up with the pace that he will set.
  • Kang is very dangerous standing up or on the ground. He can finish Ramos wherever this fight takes place.
  • Kang is skilled enough in all areas to constantly make Ramos work. There’s nowhere that Ramos can take this fight where he’ll be able to take a break and catch his breath. Even if Ramos manages to gain top position, Kang is a nightmare from the bottom.
  • The judges should be using the new scoring criteria at UFC 227 and Kang’s super aggressive, damage focused style of fighting is very well suited to this new criteria.
  • Kang has excellent cardio and he’s extremely tough. He’s the kind of guy that you have to kill in order to beat.
  • UFC 227 is a big event and we often see young, inexperienced fighters like Ramos under-perform on cards like this.

Risk Factors with betting on Kyung Ho Kang

  • Kang has only fought one time in the last 4 years due to compulsory Military service that he had to complete in South Korea.
  • Kang is wild and reckless. He often gives up easy takedowns and position on the ground while chasing finishes.
  • Ramos is an excellent fighter. He’s dangerous standing and very dangerous on the ground.
  • Ramos is only 23 years old, so he’ll be making big improvements from fight to fight. It’s possible that he could have improved his cardio a lot coming into this matchup.

My Betting Tip

Kyung Ho Kang to win

Recommended Stake

1 Unit

[1% of your bankroll]

Odds

Decimal = 2.75
Moneyline = +175
Fractional = 7/4

36%

Implied Probability

The bookies believe that Kyung Ho Kang has a 36% chance of beating Ricardo Ramos based on their current odds.

50%

Our Probability

We believe that Kyung Ho Kang has a 50% chance of beating Ricardo Ramos based on our extensive research and analysis.

Montel Jackson vs Ricky Simon Betting Tip and Prediction

I don’t usually like to bet on fighters who are making their UFC debut, but I can’t pass up the opportunity to bet on Montel Jackson at almost even money. Up until this point in his career, he has only fought a low level of opponent, but from what I have seen he looks really, really, really good. Jackson has a similar style and frame to Jon Jones, and I believe he can go very far in the sport.

Montel Jackson is a nightmare stylistic matchup for Ricky Simon because Simon is primarily a wrestler, while Montel Jackson is a high-level striker who was once apart of the United States Olympic wrestling program. That’s right. Jackson is a dangerous, technical striker with a similar frame to Jon Jones and he also has an Olympic level wrestling pedigree!

If this fight stays standing Montel Jackson should be able to dominate. He does a great job of fighting long and throwing a wide range of strikes. He’s also super technical and has legit 1 shot KO power in every strike. He is a significantly better striker than Simon.

Simon is primarily a wrestler, but when you watch Jackson in grappling exchanges, his Olympic level wrestling shines through. He’s special. Simon was repeatedly taken down and controlled in his last fight against Merab Dvalishvili, and I expect Jackson to have a similar level of success.

It’s always risky betting on a fighter when they make their UFC debut because fighting under the bright lights for the first time can have an adverse effect on their performance. That said, the odds on Jackson are very generous considering he is significantly better than Simon everywhere and has an enormous size advantage:

Montel Jackson looks like a special fighter, and this is a good stylistic matchup for him. He’s inexperienced, but he has the skills to beat a guy like Ricky Simon. This bet is a bit of a gamble, but I strongly feel there’s good value in the odds at close to even money.

Reasons for betting on Montel Jackson

  • Montel Jackson is significantly better than Ricky Simon in every single aspect of MMA.
  • Montel Jackson has sharp, technical striking with true KO power in every strike.
  • Montel Jackson is a strong wrestler, who was once apart of the United States Olympic Wrestling Program.
  • Montel Jackson fights very long. He does a great job of keeping his opponent’s on the end of his jab and using his reach to stay out of his opponent’s Boxing range.
  • Montel Jackson has a huge size advantage in this matchup. He towers over Simon and has a 5 inch reach advantage.
  • Ricky Simon is primarily a wrestler, but from what I have seen Jackson is a much better wrestler.
  • Ricky Simon has poor takedown defense.
  • Ricky Simon is a strong wrestler but he does not have a strong top game.
  • Montel Jackson appears to be making big improvements from fight to fight.
  • Montel Jackson does a great job of chaining his striking and wrestling together. He has a fluid style of fighting.

Risk Factors with betting on Montel Jackson

  • Montel Jackson is making his UFC debut. Fighters are more likely to underperform in their first fight in the UFC.
  • Montel Jackson has only fought a low level of opponent up until this point in his career. No one has come close to testing him.
  • Ricky Simon is extremely tough. He’s the kind of guy who you have to practically kill in order to beat.
  • Ricky Simon is very aggressive. He will try to turn this into a dogfight and nobody has ever dragged Jackson into deep waters before.

My Betting Tip

Montel Jackson to win

Recommended Stake

2 Units

[2% of your bankroll]

Odds

Decimal = 1.90
Moneyline = -111
Fractional = 9/10

53%

Implied Probability

The bookies believe that Montel Jackson has a 53% chance of beating Ricky Simon based on their current odds.

65%

Our Probability

We believe that Montel Jackson has a 65% chance of beating Ricky Simon based on our extensive research and analysis.

Allsopp
I'm a Professional Gambler from the UK. I specialize in betting on MMA. I've got 1 kid, a Shih Tzu and I've been making money from gambling for around 8 years now.

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