Merry Christmas!!! I hope that you’ve had a great time with your families. I’ve taken some time off recently to relax and recharge my batteries because we’ve got a busy few months ahead of us with tons of UFC events taking place in the first quarter of 2019.
2018 has been a good year overall, and I’m hoping that we can end the year with a big profit on Saturday night at UFC 232.
Thank you so much for your support over the last 5 years. We’ve had a lot of bad luck over the last few months, but you have hung in there and weathered the storm. You should feel proud of yourself for staying in the fight because most people lack the mentality to do this. Most people quit when the going gets tough, and you didn’t. You are now well on the way to developing the kind of mindset that will enable you to make big money long-term from betting on MMA. Many of you who have been with me for a long time already have this mindset. That’s why you’re still here!
It’s important to remember that Spring always follows Winter and things will turn around soon. They always do. It’s mathematically improbable that we can continue to take the kind of beats we’ve been taking this year. We’ve lost an ungodly amount of bad decisions in 2018, and yet we still managed to bank a solid profit for the year. We will continue to put our money in strong positions, and I have no doubt that a giant winning run is just around the corner. I’ve had many flat runs over the last 10 years, and they are always followed up by giant winning streaks. My results chart paints a clear picture of this trend:
I am so excited because our future has never looked brighter. Just two weeks ago we were in a position where we probably would not be able to Livebet anymore from January 2019 onwards because most of the major betting websites around the world are UK based businesses. This includes Bet365, William Hill, and Ladbrokes. For this reason, the sports that these websites offer Live Betting on have always been closely linked to which sports are televised in the UK. Up until last week, the UFC’s existing TV broadcasting deal in the UK was scheduled to expire on December 29th. This meant that from January 2019 onwards it was extremely unlikely that we would be able to continue Livebetting on the UFC at the major betting websites that offer a decent level of liquidity.
Thankfully, Santa came to our rescue, and last week it was announced that BT Sport would continue to broadcast all UFC events live on their TV channels in the UK after the Eleven Sports broadcasting deal fell through. Eleven Sports don’t have TV Channels in the UK; they were planning to broadcast all UFC events through their streaming platform which meant that we probably would not have been able to Livebet UFC anymore. This is the best Christmas present that I could ever have hoped for!
Thank you, Santa!!! Our future is now secure, and we can now continue to make big profits from Live Betting in 2019 and beyond!
The UK is now one of the only countries in the world that will be broadcasting UFC prelims on regular TV. Without this new TV deal, I am 95% sure that betting sites would not have offered Live Betting on Prelim fights from January onwards. I am about 75% sure that they would have stopped offering Live Betting on UFC fights altogether.
In just two weeks we’ve gone from being completely doomed to having so much to look forward to in 2019 and beyond. Not only can we continue to make money through Live Betting on UFC, but we also have more exciting things to come in the future that could help us make even more money…
In 2018, for the first time, we saw major betting websites offer Live Betting on Bellator and Cage Warriors events. Right now liquidity is too low on these promotions for me to provide betting tips, but in time it will improve. Soon, we may be able to live bet UFC, Bellator and Cage Warriors which would substantially increase the amount of money we can make. Bellator and Cage Warriors collectively put together around 30 events per year, which would take the total number of events that we could livebet from 40 events per year up to 70 events.
Most of the major betting websites in the United States have also committed to offering Live Betting on UFC fights sometime in 2019. This is amazing news because betting websites in the United States are much less sophisticated than those in Europe. This means that they do not have the advanced machine learning capabilities that enable them to limit winning players. The major betting websites in the United States, instead tend to use Pinnacle’s model of not limiting people. Instead, they prefer to set reasonable max bet limits and adjust the odds whenever the cumulative total of max bet limits has been reached. This is great news for us because soon we may be able to place bets on a few websites that won’t shut us down for making too much money.
For many years now we have been hoping that online gambling would be legalized in the United States so that major betting websites like Bet365, William Hill and Ladbrokes could start offering their services to customers in the US. This finally looks like it may become a reality after the Supreme Court ruled that US states can now decide to legalize online gambling on an individual, state by state basis.
The legalization of online gambling in the United States would be huge for us because right now liquidity on UFC Live Betting is very low. This is mainly because the UFC is broadcast at bad times around the world in countries where online gambling is currently legal. For example in Europe, the vast majority of UFC events do not start until around midnight. In Australia, they don’t start until the morning or early afternoon. The majority of UFC events are broadcast with the US audience in mind, which means it’s only the Canadian betting market which brings real liquidity to Live Betting on UFC. When the major betting websites start offering their services to US customers, we should see a dramatic increase in liquidity on Live Betting UFC that could be similar to the liquidity we see on major sports like Basketball, Baseball, NFL and Ice Hockey. If this happens we should be able to bet much larger amounts of money in Live Betting and it should also take betting sites much longer to limit our accounts.
Thank you for being a part of this community and making this a special place. I promise you that I will continue to work my ass off so that we can crush it again in 2019.
|Alexander Gustafsson vs Jon Jones||No bet||Jones to win|
|Amanda Nunes vs Cristiane “Cyborg” Justino||4 units on Cristiane “Cyborg” Justino to win at odds of 1.43 | -233 | 43/100||Cyborg to win|
|Carlos Condit vs Michael Chiesa||No bet||Condit to win|
|Corey Anderson vs Ilir Latifi||No bet||Latifi to win|
|Alexander Volkanovski vs Chad Mendes||No bet||Mendes to win|
|Andrei Arlovski vs Walt Harris||No bet||Harris to win|
|Cat Zingano vs Megan Anderson||No bet||Anderson to win|
|Douglas Andrade vs Petr Yan||No bet||Yan to win|
|BJ Penn vs Ryan Hall||1 unit on BJ Penn to win at odds of 4.50 | +350 | 7/2||Penn to win|
|Brian Kelleher vs Montel Jackson||No bet||Jackson to win|
|Andre Ewell vs Nathaniel Wood||No bet||Wood to win|
|Bevon Lewis vs Uriah Hall||No bet||Hall to win|
|Curtis Millender vs Siyar Bahadurzada||No bet||Millender to win|
Amanda Nunes vs Cris “Cyborg” Justino Betting Tip and Prediction
When we evaluate the skills of both Amanda Nunes and Cristiane “Cyborg” Justino, this becomes a tough matchup to predict because the vast majority of opponents that Amanda Nunes has faced over the last few years have been good stylistic matchups for her.
Nunes thrives against opponents who will give up the center of the Octagon and allow her to dictate the pace. Nunes only starts to struggle when she is forced to fight on the back foot. She’s very good at being the hammer, but not so good at being the nail. Over the last few years a few of her opponents like Ronda Rousey, Sara McMann, and Miesha Tate have tried to lead the dance, but they all lacked the footwork and striking to take control of the center of the Octagon and put pressure on Nunes. We haven’t seen anyone successfully force Nunes to compete for dominance since she ran into a prime Cat Zingano way back in 2014.
Cyborg’s past opponents also do not tell us that much about how she’s going to deal with Nunes’ devastating power and high-level ground game. Cyborg has never fought anyone in MMA who hits as hard as Nunes, and she hasn’t fought anyone as high level on the ground either. A lack of credible opponents at 145 pounds has resulted in Cyborg being matched up against undersized opponents and total cans over the last few years. I believe that Amanda Nunes is by far the toughest test of Cyborg’s career and her past opponents do not give us that much information as to how she may react if Nunes can put her in a bad position.
I believe that this is a winnable fight for Amanda Nunes, but I also think that she has an enormous mountain to climb. At odds of around 1.43 | -233 | 43/100 I do believe that Cyborg is a decent bet, but this is not going to be an easy fight.
I expect the majority of this fight to stay standing because I do not believe that Nunes has the cardio to mix it up on the ground with Cyborg for any significant amount of time. However; I want to make it clear that Nunes is lightyears ahead of Cyborg on the ground. Cyborg has shown flashes of poor takedown defense in the past, and Nunes has super high-level Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. If Nunes can find a way to get this fight to the ground, it’s possible she could submit Cyborg. It won’t be easy because Cyborg is very physically strong and skilled enough to defend herself, but it’s a possibility.
If the fight stays standing, I do believe that Nunes is going to struggle with Cyborg’s forward pressure and aggression. Cyborg has a controlled, measured style of fighting but she does a great job of controlling the center of the Octagon by any means necessary. If ever she loses control of the center of the Octagon you’ll see her run to get back into position and if her opponent is in a lead position, she’ll come forward throwing bombs to get control back. Once her feet touch the black lines to mark the center of the Octagon, she’s happy to compete in kickboxing range and doesn’t get overly aggressive. This makes her opponents feel trapped, and it forces them to exert a lot of energy both physically and mentally. This is a big factor to take into consideration because Nunes has gassed out in the past and she is not comfortable with fighting on the outside.
One criticism I have with Cyborg is that she is very hittable and doesn’t move her head that much. She does, however, have a masculine bone structure and a very good chin. Over the years we’ve seen her compete against high-level Boxers and Muay Thai fighters and she seems to be able to walk through almost anything. Even when we’ve seen her hurt she has the heart of a Lion, and she’s very fast to recover. She suffered a compound fracture in her toe against Daria Ibragimova and just carried on fighting even though the bone was sticking out of her foot. Cyborg has shown in many of her past fights in both MMA and Muay Thai that she’s an absolute warrior. It won’t be easy for Nunes to get her out of there.
This is a tough matchup for both fighters, but I feel we’ve seen over the years that Cyborg has the cardio, toughness, chin, heart, and skills to break almost anyone eventually. In the past we’ve seen Nunes gas out, quit when put in dangerous positions and occasionally demonstrate bad fight IQ. Cyborg is an absolute phenom who will be in Nunes’ face from the first second to the last, and I don’t believe Nunes has the cardio to keep up with Cyborg for 25 minutes. Nunes may be able to put Cyborg in some bad positions early, but the 3rd, 4th, and 5th rounds should be all Cyborg. There aren’t many girls on the planet where we would be able to bet Cyborg at these kinds of odds; we should take this opportunity while we can.
Reasons for betting on Cristiane “Cyborg” Justino
Risk Factors with betting on Cristiane “Cyborg” Justino
My Betting Tip
Cristiane “Cyborg” Justino to win
[4% of your bankroll]
Decimal = 1.43
Moneyline = -233
Fractional = 43/100
The bookies believe that Cristiane “Cyborg” Justino has a 70% chance of beating Amanda Nunes based on their current odds.
BJ Penn vs Ryan Hall Betting Tip and Prediction
BJ Penn vs Ryan Hall is a fight that belongs on UFC 1. It’s the kind of freakshow fight that we rarely get to see in the UFC in 2018. Ryan Hall is a one-dimensional Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu practitioner. He’s super dangerous on the ground, but he doesn’t bring anything else to the table. He has no striking and no wrestling. This is backed up by the fact that he hasn’t completed a single takedown in the UFC. His takedown offense percentage is 0%. He only manages to take a fight to the ground when he rolls for a leg lock or pulls guard. BJ Penn is skilled enough and experienced enough not to fall for these tricks.
10 years ago BJ Penn would have ripped Ryan Hall’s head off and fed it to hungry children, but at 40 years old he is showing all the signs of a fighter on a steep decline. His cardio is not what it was, and he’s looking a little gunshy and much less aggressive than he used to be. Having said that, in his last fight against Dennis Siver he showed flashes of the gravity-defying balance and core strength that made it so difficult to take him down throughout his career. Penn’s takedown defense has always been impenetrable, which is why I find the odds on this fight so confusing. BJ Penn has successfully defended 75% of all takedown attempts in the UFC. This is an extremely impressive statistic when you take into consideration the fact that he has fought some of the best wrestlers in the history of the sport such as Matt Hughes, Rory MacDonald, Frankie Edgar, Jon Fitch, and George St-Pierre. He also competed against other skilled grapplers such as Sean Sherk, Diego Sanchez, Renzo Gracie, Jens Pulver, Joe Stevenson, Kenny Florian, Matt Serra, and Caol Uno. Penn’s CV is more impressive than perhaps anyone else who has ever competed in the UFC. He has consistently fought the best fighters in the world ever since his first pro fight way back at UFC 31. At 40 years old Penn has declined a lot, but has he declined so much that he should be such a big underdog against someone as bad as Ryan Hall? The oddsmakers are giving him no chance here, and I firmly believe that’s wrong. Hall has a style of fighting that irritates judges, referees, and the crowd and BJ Penn is experienced enough not to fall for his tricks. We often see the kind of tactics Hall uses punished by MMA judges, so a decision win for BJ Penn is a strong possibility if he can keep the fight somewhat visually close.
BJ Penn hasn’t looked great over the last few years, but it’s not surprising when you take into consideration the guys he has fought. Ryan Hall would probably look even worse if he was going up against the likes of Yair Rodriguez, Frankie Edgar, and Rory MacDonald. At 40 years old Penn is never going to be a safe bet, but it appears that he is taking this fight very seriously. He has moved away from his family in Hawaii to train in Rio at Nova Uniao and at yesterday’s weigh-in, he looked healthier than he has in a long time now that he’s back competing at 155 pounds.
BJ Penn has the skills to keep this fight standing, and he also has the skills to dominate the striking. He has world class BJJ that he can use to defend himself if this fight goes to the ground and for these reasons I believe he’s a solid bet. There’s no way he should be this big of an underdog against Hall.
Hall is an awkward, unorthodox fighter who will stay on the outside, chip away at Penn with kicks and look to roll for a leg or pull guard at every opportunity. If Penn shuts these takedown attempts down, it’s going to make Hall look very bad, and many judges frown upon these kinds of tactics.
At UFC 232 tonight we have 6 judges interchanging between the fights, and all of them have had tons of bad scorecards under their belt over the last few years. Two of the judges who will be scoring the fights at UFC 232 scored the most recent Whittaker vs Romero fight 49-48 for Whittaker. One of them scored the Cooper vs Yoder fight 29-28 in favor of Yoder. Another guy scored the Ottow vs Grant fight 29-28 in favor of Ottow, and another one of these judges scored the fight 29-28 in favor of Drakkar Klose over Bobby Green. These are all horrendous scorecards, but they also mean that if this fight goes the distance, whatever happens, BJ has a great chance of winning. The current implied probability on BJ Penn is just 22%. That is absolute madness in a fight like this. This is a freak show fight, and if BJ Penn stays patient and fights smart, he can win this. I doubt that this bet will be an easy winner, but god damn if you’re looking for a value bet tonight, this is it!
Reasons for betting on BJ Penn
Risk Factors with betting on BJ Penn
My Betting Tip
BJ Penn to win
[1% of your bankroll]
Decimal = 4.50
Moneyline = +350
Fractional = 7/2
The bookies believe that BJ Penn has a 22% chance of beating Ryan Hall based on their current odds.