UFC on ESPN+ 15 Betting Tips, Picks and Predictions

Usually, at this stage in one of these articles, I would talk about how we did on the last event. But since I am posting this before UFC 241 takes place, I just hope that Sandhagen and Diaz came through for us. Hopefully, we crushed it in Live Betting too.

In a few hours, I’ll be catching a flight and taking a 2-week vacation with very limited access to the internet so I won’t be online much in the run-up to this event. This means that you may not get responses to your emails and messages on the website over the next couple of weeks. It also means that if there is a problem with the website it may take longer than usual to fix.

I want to assure you that I’ll be thoroughly researching this card and providing you with Betting Tips as usual. I’ll also be back from my vacation in time to offer my usual Live Betting service and fight commentary.

Jessica Andrade vs Weili Zhang Betting Tip and Prediction

The odds on this fight are confusing because it’s one of those matchups where Andrade is just undeniably better than Weili Zhang everywhere. You’d be hard pushed to find anyone with a brain-picking Zhang to win. This is why I find it strange that the odds are so generous on Jessica Andrade. For this reason, I recommend that you lock in this bet as soon as possible because I firmly believe that these odds will decline significantly as we get closer to the time of the fights. This is probably as good as they are going to get. It’s all downhill from here.

Zhang is reasonably good everywhere, but she has a huge mountain to climb against Andrade. If the fight stays standing, she should be able to keep the early stages competitive with her technical Kickboxing, but she lacks the power to back Andrade up and the footwork make it difficult for Andrade to close the distance. Eventually, the power and physicality of Andrade should be too much for her to handle.

On the ground is where Andrade should have a big advantage. Tecia Torres was able to take Zhang down and put her in some bad positions on the ground, which isn’t a good sign for her going up against a powerhouse like Andrade.

Of course it’s a slight concern that this fight is taking place in China, so Zhang will have home advantage on her side. Historically Chinese judges have been extremely bad and extremely biased, which means we can’t go too big on Andrade here. We also can’t ignore the fact that fighting in China may disrupt Andrade’s preparation and weight cutting. Despite these small inconveniences though I do expect Andrade to win this fight comfortably. This should be an easy winner. Her pressure and power should be too much for Zhang to handle.

Remember to lock in this bet as soon as possible because I expect the odds to decline hard next week.

Reasons for betting on Jessica Andrade

Damir Ismagulov vs Thiago Moises Betting Tip and Prediction

Damir Ismagulov opened up as a 1.25 | -400 favourite over Thiago Moises, which I felt was super aggressive. In the following days after the UFC China odds were released, he then improved to around 1.40 | -250, which I felt was accurate. Since then Ismagulov’s odds have continued to improve to around 1.57 | —-, which carries an implied probability of approximately 62%. This now makes him a solid bet.

Thiago Moises trains at American Top Team and is a talented young fighter who is making big improvements from fight to fight. Moises is definitely one to watch for the future, but at this stage in his career he has some huge weaknesses, that Damir Ismagulov should be able to exploit.

Moises started his career as primarily a BJJ practitioner, but since training at ATT he has evolved into more of a complete Mixed Martial Artist. He has developed a basic level of wrestling that gives him a chance of taking down fighters who do not possess bulletproof takedown defence. He also has decent Kickboxing that enables him to compete with his opponents even if he can’t get them to the ground. There are still signs in Moises’ striking that he’s not a naturally comfortable striker because he often throws a lot of high risk / low reward spinning attacks, but he’s still very young and I am sure that the ATT coaches are working hard to iron this specific weakness out of his game.

It’s not just the high risk / low reward spinning attacks that are a weakness for Moises though. There are far bigger issues with his overall skill set which will take much longer for the ATT coaches to address. It is these weaknesses that make this such a tough matchup for Moises. The UFC have again shown ruthless matchmaking here by matching up a talented young prospect with a tough, Sambo based fighter who is basically good at everything and has no obvious weaknesses that Moises could potentially exploit.

The biggest thing holding Moises back right now is his cardio. By the midway point of the second round he is pretty much always showing clear signs of being badly gassed. More alarmingly he also gasses out in fights where he is in total control and hasn’t been forced by his opponents to work that hard. This is an important detail to pay attention to because Ismagulov, like many Sambo based fighters is a slow starter and can often demonstrate periods of passiveness and inactivity during rounds. Remember though that the devil is in the detail and Moises is one of these guys who gasses out no matter what pace a fight is contested at.

We also have to take into account the fact that the quality of air in Shenzen probably won’t be that great at this time of year with Pollution a big issue in that part of then world. Humidity also tends to be quite extreme in China at this time of year. The arena will likely be Air Conditioned and it’s possible that the quality of air will have no impact on Moises cardio at all, but at the same time it’s a potential X Factor that could wreak havoc on Moises’ cardio and cause him to gas out much faster than usual.

Stylistically this is also a bad matchup for Moises because if it stays standing he will be vulnerable to Ismagulov’s fast, technical counters. You can tell by the way that Moises moves and throws lots of goofy spinning attacks off balance that he is not comfortable standing. You can see that his striking is just a Fugazi for his BJJ game.

Ismagulov isn’t the most active striker, but he’s excellent defensively, extremely technical and ruthlessly accurate. If this fight stays standing Moises will most likely get picked apart. Ismagulov doesn’t throw a high enough volume to completely blow Moises out of the water, but it’s tough for me to see Moises winning the 2nd and 3rd rounds when he is starting to get tired and Ismagulov is starting to find his range and get warmed up. Ismagulov is an absolute nightmare in round 3 and by the 3rd round of his fights Moises is usually gassed out of his mind. For this reason it’s also worth you betting on Ismagulov to win in round 3 at big underdog odds for a high risk / high reward gamble. Remember to keep stakes on prop bets like these small, but there’s a good chance that this one will hit.

On the ground the fight is likely to be much more competitive, but again cardio is likely to dictate who gets the better of the grappling exchanges. Like most BJJ practitioners, Moises doesn’t have the best offensive wrestling. This means that he often struggles to take opponents down who have even the most basic level of takedown defence. Like many BJJ practioners he also has an inefficient style of offensive wrestling that sees him exert a lot of energy on his takedown attempts. This accelerates the rate at which he gasses out.

Ismagulov is one of those typical Sambo based fighters that is tough to take down and tough to hold down. Like most Sambo based fighters he’s also very active on the ground and is constantly working hard to create scrambles and make his opponents work hard to either defend themselves, advance or improve position. It’s unlikely that Moises will be able to take Ismagulov down, but if he does he’ll have to work extremely hard in grappling exchanges, which will again, accelerate the rate at which he gets tired.

When Moises gets tired he also goes right back to his base which is BJJ. This means that you’ll often see Moises pull guard when he’s too tired to take his opponents down. He tends to be quite ineffective off his back and Ismagulov is likely to be able to get off a lot of control time from top position.

Stylistically this is a bad matchup for Moises because Ismagulov has the advantage standing and it’s going to be difficult for Moises to take him down and hold him down. Moises also has poor cardio and slows down significantly in the 2nd round, whereas Ismagulov gets better as the fight progresses. At the current odds, I believe Ismagulov is a solid bet.

Reasons for betting on Damir Ismagulov

Da Un Jung vs Khadis Ibragimov Betting Tip and Prediction

On paper, Khadis Ibragimov is a nightmare opponent for Da Un Jung. He’s the current M1 Global Light Heavyweight Champion and a multiple-time World Combat Sambo Champion. He’s also undefeated, Russian and only 24 years old, so he should be making big improvements from fight to fight. The reality is that Ibragimov’s skills inside the cage do not reflect his pedigree on paper. Take a look at some of his recent fights and see for yourself:

As you can see, Ibragimov has sloppy striking, bad cardio, bad striking defense, and poor offensive wrestling. If you watch a few of Da Un Jung’s recent fights, you’ll see that he should have quite a big advantage over Ibragimov when it comes to striking:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WQ1sxdXrios

Unfortunately, you’ll also see that Jung’s takedown defense is really poor. He gives up takedowns way too easily and also allows his opponent to control his body way too easily. It’s not all bad, though…

If you watch those fights, you’ll also see that Jung is good in the scramble and does a reasonably good job of popping back up to his feet when he gets taken down. Ibragimov’s grappling isn’t that strong, and if Jung can keep creating scrambles and working his way back to his feet when he does get taken down, this should force Ibragimov to use up a lot of energy and gas out fast because he’ll have to shoot more takedowns to keep Jung down.

By the midway point of his fights, Ibragimov is usually gassed pretty bad, and his cardio is likely to look even worse for this fight because he’s stepping up on just 2 week’s notice to make his UFC debut.

This is a risky bet because Jung has terrible takedown defense, but it might work in his favor if he can keep popping quickly back up to his feet when he gets taken down because this will cause Ibragimov to exert a lot of energy on takedowns to ultimately achieve very little. This extra energy exertion should also accelerate the rate at which Ibragimov gasses out.

Having studied Jung and Ibragimov’s past fights, this is likely going to be an ugly, scrappy, sloppy, low-level fight and Jung’s going to have moments where he looks really bad. This is a risky bet, but the current Implied Probability on Jung at odds of around 3.20 | +220 | 11/5 is just 31%. If you study their past fights, you can clearly see that Jung has AT LEAST a 40% chance of beating Ibragimov, giving us a decent 9% margin over the bookie. I personally cap this fight at closer to 50 / 50. This bet is risky, but it’s an absolute no brainer at the current odds. Don’t tail if you struggle mentally with losing, because there’s a good chance that this bet will lose.

Reasons for betting on Da Un Jung