VIP Betting Tips, Picks & Predictions for UFC 195 – Condit vs Lawler

UFC 195 is the first major MMA event in 2016 and I expect to kick off the year with a big profit. The Oddsmakers must still be suffering from a Christmas hangover, because some of the odds on this event are totally crazy. We’ve got 3 underdog bets for UFC 195 and I believe that each of these underdogs should be the clear favourite. This extra value in the odds should mean that we can kick off the new year with a big win… [adrotate banner=”17″]
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Andrei Arlovski vs Stipe Miocic Betting Tip Prediction

Stipe Miocic is a great fighter because he’s always mixing up his attacks. If you go back and watch his last couple of fights against Junior Dos Santos and Mark Hunt, you will see that he’s constantly switching between striking, takedowns and initiating clinches every 20 to 30 seconds. This makes him a very difficult opponent, because he’s constantly dictating the pace of the fight and he has the cardio to back it up. By switching up his attacks, he never gives his opponent a chance to settle and become comfortable and this gives him a significant advantage over most of the fighters in the Heavyweight division. Andrei Arlovski has good Boxing, good takedown defence and knockout power, but at 36 years old and after 35 pro fights he’s starting to show signs of a fighter who is going to struggle against the new age of Mixed Martial Artist like Stipe Miocic. Andrei Arlovski has knockout power, but he’s nowhere near as active as Stipe Miocic, who lands 40% more strikes per minute. Arlovski also doesn’t have the grappling skills required to stop Miocic from taking him down or controlling him against the cage. It’s possible that Arlovski could stuff some early takedowns, but he doesn’t have the cardio to keep up with the intense pace that Miocic sets. Stipe Miocic should win this fight by outworking Andrei Arlovski in every area that it takes place. His takedown attempts will cause Arlovski to become more defensive, which makes the chances of Arlovski landing a knockout blow a lot less likely. Stipe has faster hands and throws a much higher volume of strikes, so he should be able to use his more technical striking to win the stand up exchanges. There’s no way that Arlovski is going to be able to outwork Miocic over three rounds and win a decision, so he’s going to have to finish Miocic inside the distance in order to win this fight and I just don’t see it happening. Stipe has shown throughout his career that he has an excellent chin and I feel it’s very unlikely that Arlovski will be able to land a knockout blow because Stipe won’t stand in front of him for long enough for him to find his range. Stipe Miocic has some of the best fight IQ in the UFC because he’s always looking to switch up his attacks and he never puts himself in danger by allowing his opponent’s to become comfortable. If he’s fighting a wrestler, he looks to use his wrestling defensively to outstrike them and if he’s fighting someone with heavy hands, he shoots for takedowns and works them against the cage to avoid having to stand in front of them and risk getting knocked out. Arlovski doesn’t have the cardio or wrestling to keep this fight on his terms and Miocic should be able to beat him with his relentless, grinding style. I also feel like a bet on this fight to go over 1.5 rounds is a good move because both guys are tough and Miocic will want to turn this fight into a grind that takes place on the ground and against the cage. I don’t see Arlovski being able to stop Miocic from turning this fight into a grind, which means we should see this fight getting dragged into the later rounds. It’s also worth noting that 6 out of Stipe’s last 7 fights have all lasted longer than 1.5 rounds and I don’t believe that this fight will take place in a range where either guy will be vulnerable to getting knocked out.
OUR FIRST BETTING TIP: 5 Units [5% of your bankroll] on Stipe Miocic to win at odds of 1.45 | -222 | 9/20 OUR SECOND BETTING TIP: 3 Units [3% of your bankroll] on this fight to last longer than 1.5 rounds at odds of 1.69 | -145 | 69/100
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Albert Tumenov vs Lorenz Larkin Betting Tip Prediction

We’ve made an incredible 17.85 units of profit on Albert Tumenov since we first bet on him to beat Anthony Lapsley back in May 2014… [divider] We were able to identify from a very early stage that Tumenov was capable of competing against a much higher standard of opponent and I still do not believe that he has faced a level of opponent that can test him. At just 24 years old, I believe Tumenov will be a future World Champion and I also believe that he would beat both Robbie Lawler and Carlos Condit if he was matched up against them at UFC 195. Many people will call me crazy for making such a bold claim, but Tumenov’s striking is at such a high level, that I don’t believe anyone in the division will be able to test him unless they can threaten him with takedowns. Condit and Lawler are both primarily strikers and in a straight up striker vs striker matchup, I believe that Tumenov would beat anyone in the Welterweight division… Lorenz Larkin is also an elite striker and whilst he may appear to be a difficult opponent for Tumenov on the surface, when you start to evalute Larkin’s overall skillset you begin to notice significant weaknesses in his game that play perfectly into Tumenov’s strengths… Larkin’s first weakness is that he doesn’t like to get hit and he will often panic and make mistakes in a desperate attempt to avoid getting hit. This means that you will often see him panic and move backwards in straight lines when his opponent lands a clean strike. This then leads to him getting trapped with his back against the cage, aimlessly trying to block strikes whilst his opponent looks to land combos. Fighting like this is suicide against a guy like Albert Tumenov, who can remain calm and composed in the pocket, whilst cutting off his opponent and landing devasting strikes with knockout power. Tumenov doesn’t just throw one punch with knockout power, he throws 5 or 6 punch combos, with each strike capable of dealing significant damage. This makes him a nightmare opponent for a guy like Lorenz Larkin, who forgets how to defend himself when he gets hit with a clean power strike. Larkin’s second weakness is his inability to deal with pressure. Larkin is not good at counter striking and he really struggles to get comfortable and find his range when his opponent pressures him. Tumenov is a high pressure fighter and he does a great job of cutting angles and holding the centre of the Octagon, whilst at the same time utilizing world class striking defence to avoid getting hurt as he moves forward to close the distance. I believe that Albert Tumenov will win this fight by applying constant pressure to Lorenz Larkin. This pressure will prevent Larkin from being able to find his range and his inability to deal with pressure will eventually lead to him making mistakes that Tumenov will be able to capitalize on.
OUR BETTING TIP: 3.5 Units [3.5% of your bankroll] on Albert Tumenov to win at odds of 1.50 | -200 | 1/2
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Justine Kish vs Nina Ansaroff Betting Tip Prediction

Before I give my reasoning behind this bet, I want you to watch Justine Kish’s last fight against Randa Markos from back in January 2014… https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PAwREnYCsJU As you can see, Justine Kish has very basic striking. She is very slow and predictable and she’s also very stiff and rigid in her movement. Her striking defence looked terrible in that fight, but Randa Markos didn’t have the power to hurt her. Back then, Randa was a part time fighter, who worked full time in a Pharmacy. She wasn’t totally committed to the sport of MMA and yet Kish still failed to look impressive against her, even though Markos was clearly gassed out in the second round. I believe that training will play a big factor in this match up, because Justine Kish hasn’t fought in 2 years and she probably hasn’t earned enough money within that time to eat good or live good. This has resulted in her having to move to Thailand and train in a small Muay Thai gym… Nina Ansaroff is well rounded in all areas of MMA and trains with some of the best fighters in the world at American Top Team. Whilst Kish is hitting pads in Thailand, Ansaroff is training with the likes of Amanda Nunes, Tecia Torres and Valerie Letourneau. Justine Kish has a background as a Pro Kickboxer, but her performances in the past have been very underwhelming. It’s always tough to gauge how impressive a Pro Boxing or Kick Boxing record is, because there are so many squash matches that take place in those sports. Nina Ansaroff is a 3rd degree Black Belt in Tae Kwon Do and her striking looks much better than Justine’s. Ansaroff is faster, more fluid in her movement and way more technical than Justine. She also utilizes a lot of footwork to stay elusive and she throws a much wider range of strikes. I believe that Ansaroff has a significant advantage when it comes to striking and I expect her to be able to use her speed and footwork to pick Kish apart. Nina Ansaroff may have been dominated on the ground in her UFC debut against Juliana Lima, but her ground game and wrestling is normally pretty good and she does a great job of mixing up her striking with takedowns. Kish is very singular in her approach to MMA and she tries to fight with a pure Muay Thai style. I believe that Ansaroff will be able to steal rounds by landing some takedowns and controlling Kish on the ground. Justine Kish is 4-0 in MMA and she’s only had 4 fights in the last 6 years. This is not enough time to become comfortable competing in the cage and making your UFC debut is a high pressure situation. Ring rust causes even the most experienced fighters a problem and it’s unlikely that Kish will be able to find comfort in the Octagon straight away. Nina Ansaroff has more than double the amount of pro fights that Kish does and she’s far more experienced going into this matchup. It may take Kish a couple of rounds to find comfort and shake off the ring rust by then she will probably have already lost the fight on the judges scorecards. Justine Kish has not fought in the last 2 years and she will now be making her UFC debut against Nina Ansaroff at UFC 195. It’s possible that Kish could have made huge improvements since her last fight against Randa Markos, but based on the information we have, I believe that Ansaroff is a great bet at the current odds. If Kish shows up and fights anything like she has in the past, Ansaroff should be able to win this fight easily.
OUR BETTING TIP: 2 Units [2% of your bankroll] on Nina Ansaroff to win at odds of 3.35 | +235 | 47/20
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Dustin Poirier vs Joe Duffy Betting Tip Prediction

Joe Duffy is a talented fighter, but he is also one of the most protected fighters I have ever seen. His 2 wins in the UFC have come against extremely weak opposition and he also faced a very low standard of opponent when he fought in Cage Warriors. It is true that he has beaten Conor McGregor and Norman Parke, but he fought both those guys over 5 years ago when they were both very inexperienced on the ground. Duffy’s Pro MMA record of 14-1 is padded by wins over an exceptionally low level of opponent and now he’s facing a huge step up in competition against Dustin Poirier. When Joe Duffy was crushing cans on the regional MMA circuit in Europe, Dustin Poirier was developing as a fighter against some of the best in the world in the UFC. It’s hard to believe that Poirier is still only 26 years old, but it also goes some way towards explaining why he improves so much from fight to fight. If you go back and watch any of Joe Duffy’s fights, you’ll notice that almost all of his opponents easily give up the centre of the Cage and allow Duffy to control the fight. No one has ever even tried to force Duffy to fight going backwards and this has meant that Duffy could fight comfortably without having to worry about being pressured. It’s easy to look great when your opponent fights scared, but it’s not so easy when your fighting someone who won’t submit to your Alpha. Dustin Poirier will not give up the centre of the Octagon to Joe Duffy and this is the first time in Duffy’s entire career where he’s going to have to work hard to try and control the striking exchanges. Dustin Poirier is criminally underrated. Everytime he fights, people bring up his loss to Conor McGregor, but people forget that he has a pro MMA record of 18-4 and they forget that he has been fighting against the best guys in the world in the UFC and WEC since he was just 21 years old. Poirier is a tough opponent for any Lightweight in the UFC because he doesn’t have any weaknesses in his game. He has strong wrestling, high level Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, elite striking, cardio for days and a chin from hell. He has proven himself against the best in the world and he trains at American Top Team, which is one of the best gyms in the world. Poirier trains with World Champions like Will Brooks and Robbie Lawler every single day. He has competed in main events from a very young age and he’s fought against almost every style of opponent that you can imagine. With all the challenges he has faced in the WEC and UFC, he has only ever lost 4 times in 22 career fights. Joe Duffy could be legit and he could win this fight, but the only thing that will prepare you for fighting a guy like Dustin Poirier, is fighting guys like Dustin Poirier. There’s a big difference between fighting passive opponents like Jake Lindsey and Ivan Jorge, to fighting guys like Poirier who are going to try and take your head off from the very first second of the fight. Duffy’s biggest weakness is his striking defence and he doesn’t react well to getting hit. If you go back and watch all of his previous fights, you will notice that he always tries to change levels when he gets hurt and if his level change fails he starts to wilt. Poirier has high level striking, he hits very hard and he fights out of the Southpaw stance. Poirier is more than happy to stand and exchange and we have seen in the past that Duffy will do anything he can to avoid getting hit. I believe that Poirier’s aggressive style of fighting and relentless pressure will cause Duffy to wilt and make mistakes like he has in the past. We also have to take into consideration the fact that Joe Duffy had to drop out of his fight with Dustin Poirier back in late October due to a concussion that he suffered in training. A concussion is a very serious brain injury and it can take a long time to heal. Duffy is returning to action far too quickly and we have no idea how much his coordination and durability will have been affected by this injury. You should take at least 6 months off after suffering from a concussion and I don’t understand why Duffy is being allowed to return to action after just 2 months. When you evaluate all the information we have available, I honestly have no idea why Dustin Poirier is such a big underdog in this fight. I would personally cap Poirier as the favourite, because I believe that he can beat Joe Duffy in any area that this fight takes place…
OUR BETTING TIP: 2 Units [2% of your bankroll] on Dustin Poirier to win at odds of 3.00 | +200 | 2/1
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